Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
17
Up 65%
2 arb excluded
$2.5K
$-1.0K
Smart Money Signal
11 of 17 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$1.53 | 64% 140-79 (219) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $721 | — | -$731.49 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $720.18 | $1.4K | +$729.96 | |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50.5¢ | $758.8 | $754.82 | +$18.81 | 51% 2266-2202 (4468) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2466-1957 (4423) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 75.3¢ | $59.14 | $78.53 | +$19.39 | 49% 3525-3636 (7161) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 67.9¢ | $75.9 | $80 | +$4.1 | 50% 1977-1974 (3951) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67.9¢ | $54.3 | $80 | +$25.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31¢ | $21.6 | — | -$21.6 | |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 67.7¢ | $66.72 | $30 | +$8.09 | 52% 1456-1332 (2788) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 56.3¢ | $30.56 | $39.08 | +$8.53 | 54% 1677-1430 (3107) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 34.8¢ | $23.55 | — | -$23.55 | 46% 985-1137 (2122) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $17.41 | $17 | -$0.41 | 39% 895-1424 (2319) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $9.2 | — | -$9.2 | 50% 1445-1426 (2871) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $10.05 | $12.28 | +$2.23 | 60% 2531-1695 (4226) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 33.5¢ | $3.35 | — | -$3.35 | 63% 2780-1667 (4447) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 45.6¢ | $2.55 | — | -$2.55 | 66% 2369-1200 (3569) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 38% 927-1543 (2470) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 19.7¢ | $22.41 | — | -$22.41 | 47% 1712-1954 (3666) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 27.4¢ | $14.04 | — | -$14.04 | 52% 4164-3913 (8077) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 48.7¢ | $14.6 | — | -$14.6 | 47% 1411-1608 (3019) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $2.4 | — | -$2.4 | 46% 1350-1577 (2927) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$1.53
Record
64%
140-79 (219)
Both legs:
Invested
$758.8
Value
$754.82
PnL
+$18.81
Record
51%
2266-2202 (4468)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2466-1957 (4423)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$59.14
Value
$78.53
PnL
+$19.39
Record
49%
3525-3636 (7161)
Invested
$75.9
Value
$80
PnL
+$4.1
Record
50%
1977-1974 (3951)
Both legs:
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$66.72
Value
$30
PnL
+$8.09
Record
52%
1456-1332 (2788)
Invested
$30.56
Value
$39.08
PnL
+$8.53
Record
54%
1677-1430 (3107)
Invested
$23.55
Value
—
PnL
-$23.55
Record
46%
985-1137 (2122)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$17.41
Value
$17
PnL
-$0.41
Record
39%
895-1424 (2319)
Invested
$9.2
Value
—
PnL
-$9.2
Record
50%
1445-1426 (2871)
Invested
$10.05
Value
$12.28
PnL
+$2.23
Record
60%
2531-1695 (4226)
Invested
$3.35
Value
—
PnL
-$3.35
Record
63%
2780-1667 (4447)
Invested
$2.55
Value
—
PnL
-$2.55
Record
66%
2369-1200 (3569)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
38%
927-1543 (2470)
Invested
$22.41
Value
—
PnL
-$22.41
Record
47%
1712-1954 (3666)
Invested
$14.04
Value
—
PnL
-$14.04
Record
52%
4164-3913 (8077)
Invested
$14.6
Value
—
PnL
-$14.6
Record
47%
1411-1608 (3019)
Invested
$2.4
Value
—
PnL
-$2.4
Record
46%
1350-1577 (2927)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
soswald1
Down — $754.82
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
asdcaxz
Down — $78.53
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $30
ply-pm2
Down — $39.08
rabadabadoo
CTRUp — $0
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $17