Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET
Resolved Up. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
23
Up 64%
5 arb excluded
$3.8K
$57.89
Smart Money Signal
15 of 23 top traders (65%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$1.07 | 64% 140-79 (219) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $708.74 | $1.4K | +$701.52 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $717.14 | — | -$702.58 | |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $750 | $723 | +$47 | 51% 2266-2202 (4468) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $361.5 | $723 | +$359.95 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $325.35 | — | -$312.95 | |
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2466-1957 (4423) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
HC Hcrystallash | Upavg 99¢ | $197.58 | $199.58 | +$2 | 58% 4615-3393 (8008) |
BL blue.birdsARB<$100 | Upavg 48.5¢ | $99.77 | $116 | +$16.23 | 52% 4164-3913 (8077) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.5¢ | $56.3 | $116 | +$59.7 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.6¢ | $43.47 | — | -$43.47 | |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 13¢ | $26.48 | $111.38 | +$84.9 | 50% 1445-1426 (2871) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Downavg 49.4¢ | $62.3 | — | -$50.75 | 49% 3525-3636 (7161) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Downavg 42.2¢ | $45.94 | — | -$45.94 | 50% 1977-1974 (3951) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 76.9¢ | $83.63 | — | -$48.14 | 52% 1456-1332 (2788) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 30¢ | $17.61 | $31.49 | +$13.88 | 46% 985-1137 (2122) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $9.12 | — | -$9.12 | 39% 895-1424 (2319) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $14.82 | $30.25 | +$15.43 | 48% 1242-1341 (2583) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 98.9¢ | $31.87 | $25.01 | -$6.86 | 66% 2369-1200 (3569) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 8¢ | $1.68 | $21 | +$19.32 | 46% 1350-1577 (2927) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $4.5 | $18 | +$13.5 | 47% 1411-1608 (3019) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 62.4¢ | $28.71 | — | -$25.14 | 52% 1810-1682 (3492) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 28¢ | $9.1 | $16.61 | +$7.92 | 63% 2780-1667 (4447) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 9¢ | $1.43 | $15.9 | +$14.47 | 33% 686-1380 (2066) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 71.3¢ | $9.82 | $13.78 | +$3.96 | 38% 927-1543 (2470) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 23.9¢ | $9.03 | — | -$9.03 | 48% 1361-1500 (2861) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 28¢ | $3 | $10.71 | +$7.71 | 48% 1603-1710 (3313) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 75.3¢ | $52.86 | — | -$27.33 | 54% 1677-1430 (3107) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 62.1¢ | $3.84 | $6.19 | +$2.35 | 63% 1662-970 (2632) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Upavg 7¢ | $0.42 | $6 | +$5.58 | 37% 716-1225 (1941) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$1.07
Record
64%
140-79 (219)
Both legs:
Invested
$750
Value
$723
PnL
+$47
Record
51%
2266-2202 (4468)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2466-1957 (4423)
Both legs:
Invested
$197.58
Value
$199.58
PnL
+$2
Record
58%
4615-3393 (8008)
Invested
$99.77
Value
$116
PnL
+$16.23
Record
52%
4164-3913 (8077)
Both legs:
Invested
$26.48
Value
$111.38
PnL
+$84.9
Record
50%
1445-1426 (2871)
Invested
$62.3
Value
—
PnL
-$50.75
Record
49%
3525-3636 (7161)
Invested
$45.94
Value
—
PnL
-$45.94
Record
50%
1977-1974 (3951)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$83.63
Value
—
PnL
-$48.14
Record
52%
1456-1332 (2788)
Invested
$17.61
Value
$31.49
PnL
+$13.88
Record
46%
985-1137 (2122)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$9.12
Value
—
PnL
-$9.12
Record
39%
895-1424 (2319)
Invested
$14.82
Value
$30.25
PnL
+$15.43
Record
48%
1242-1341 (2583)
Invested
$31.87
Value
$25.01
PnL
-$6.86
Record
66%
2369-1200 (3569)
Invested
$1.68
Value
$21
PnL
+$19.32
Record
46%
1350-1577 (2927)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$18
PnL
+$13.5
Record
47%
1411-1608 (3019)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$28.71
Value
—
PnL
-$25.14
Record
52%
1810-1682 (3492)
Invested
$9.1
Value
$16.61
PnL
+$7.92
Record
63%
2780-1667 (4447)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$1.43
Value
$15.9
PnL
+$14.47
Record
33%
686-1380 (2066)
Invested
$9.82
Value
$13.78
PnL
+$3.96
Record
38%
927-1543 (2470)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$9.03
Value
—
PnL
-$9.03
Record
48%
1361-1500 (2861)
Invested
$3
Value
$10.71
PnL
+$7.71
Record
48%
1603-1710 (3313)
Invested
$52.86
Value
—
PnL
-$27.33
Record
54%
1677-1430 (3107)
Invested
$3.84
Value
$6.19
PnL
+$2.35
Record
63%
1662-970 (2632)
Invested
$0.42
Value
$6
PnL
+$5.58
Record
37%
716-1225 (1941)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
QuantumPebble673
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Hcrystallash
Up — $199.58
blue.birds
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
Up — $111.38
asdcaxz
CTRDown — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRDown — $0
Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown — $0