Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET
Resolved Down. 16% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
19
Up 16%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
$-1.9K
Smart Money Signal
3 of 19 top traders (16%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | 65% 127-68 (195) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.8¢ | $508.79 | $509.99 | +$5.8 | 56% 2419-1897 (4316) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.8¢ | $253.81 | $509.99 | +$255.8 | |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 99¢ | $203.94 | $206 | +$2.06 | 58% 4587-3378 (7965) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $191.49 | $193.08 | +$1.59 | 74% 1097-389 (1486) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 73.1¢ | $149.9 | $132.61 | -$12.79 | 51% 1409-1375 (2784) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 55.6¢ | $78.98 | $74.37 | -$4.6 | 49% 3518-3623 (7141) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 57¢ | $29.83 | $51.83 | +$22 | 51% 2225-2153 (4378) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 49.3¢ | $21.65 | $43.93 | +$22.28 | 46% 1320-1541 (2861) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 65.1¢ | $23.05 | $35.39 | +$12.34 | 52% 1784-1636 (3420) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 49.9¢ | $20.76 | $22.61 | +$1.86 | 46% 965-1112 (2077) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 85.9¢ | $16.49 | $18.26 | +$1.77 | 66% 2317-1186 (3503) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 86.7¢ | $37.85 | $13.41 | +$10.29 | 53% 1432-1294 (2726) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $7.08 | $12 | +$4.92 | 47% 1374-1576 (2950) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $5.3 | $10 | +$4.7 | 48% 1336-1466 (2802) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $7.6 | $6.37 | +$1.54 | 62% 2708-1636 (4344) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $4.9 | $5.05 | +$0.15 | 48% 1558-1684 (3242) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $3.45 | $5 | +$1.55 | 52% 4124-3876 (8000) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $2.56 | $5.96 | +$3.4 | 54% 1637-1402 (3039) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 1.6¢ | $2.63 | — | -$2.63 | 39% 873-1384 (2257) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
65%
127-68 (195)
Invested
$508.79
Value
$509.99
PnL
+$5.8
Record
56%
2419-1897 (4316)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$203.94
Value
$206
PnL
+$2.06
Record
58%
4587-3378 (7965)
BoneOhioInvested
$191.49
Value
$193.08
PnL
+$1.59
Record
74%
1097-389 (1486)
Invested
$149.9
Value
$132.61
PnL
-$12.79
Record
51%
1409-1375 (2784)
Invested
$78.98
Value
$74.37
PnL
-$4.6
Record
49%
3518-3623 (7141)
Invested
$29.83
Value
$51.83
PnL
+$22
Record
51%
2225-2153 (4378)
Invested
$21.65
Value
$43.93
PnL
+$22.28
Record
46%
1320-1541 (2861)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$23.05
Value
$35.39
PnL
+$12.34
Record
52%
1784-1636 (3420)
Invested
$20.76
Value
$22.61
PnL
+$1.86
Record
46%
965-1112 (2077)
Invested
$16.49
Value
$18.26
PnL
+$1.77
Record
66%
2317-1186 (3503)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$37.85
Value
$13.41
PnL
+$10.29
Record
53%
1432-1294 (2726)
Invested
$7.08
Value
$12
PnL
+$4.92
Record
47%
1374-1576 (2950)
ohioism<$100Invested
$5.3
Value
$10
PnL
+$4.7
Record
48%
1336-1466 (2802)
Invested
$7.6
Value
$6.37
PnL
+$1.54
Record
62%
2708-1636 (4344)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5.05
PnL
+$0.15
Record
48%
1558-1684 (3242)
Invested
$3.45
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.55
Record
52%
4124-3876 (8000)
Invested
$2.56
Value
$5.96
PnL
+$3.4
Record
54%
1637-1402 (3039)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$2.63
Value
—
PnL
-$2.63
Record
39%
873-1384 (2257)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
Hcrystallash
Down — $206
BoneOhio
Down — $193.08
uninformedfloww
Down — $132.61
asdcaxz
Down — $74.37
soswald1
Down — $51.83
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $43.93
MayorMamdani
Down — $35.39