Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 53%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$674.91

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 19 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$831.76

Total Shares832

Combined PnL+$66.45

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,028

Combined PnL-$741.35

Down — 53%Up — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	+$5.46	65% 127-68 (195)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$698.57	$1.4K	+$709.36
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$698.31	—	-$703.91
SO soswald1	Downavg 50¢	$750	$699.79	+$25.27	51% 2225-2153 (4378)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	—
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$498.59	-$0.38	56% 2419-1897 (4316)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$249.3	$498.59	+$249.59
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$249.97	—	-$249.98
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 36.7¢	$73.25	—	-$73.25	51% 1409-1375 (2784)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 45.8¢	$34.65	—	-$34.65	48% 1221-1313 (2534)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Upavg 37.9¢	$54.99	—	-$46.39	49% 3518-3623 (7141)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 87¢	$58.55	—	-$38.9	53% 1432-1294 (2726)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Upavg 50.4¢	$24.23	—	-$24.23	46% 965-1112 (2077)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 46¢	$16.1	$35	+$18.9	47% 1374-1576 (2950)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 69.6¢	$20.44	$20.39	-$0.05	54% 1637-1402 (3039)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 61¢	$12.2	$20	+$7.8	52% 1784-1636 (3420)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 27.9¢	$14.81	—	-$14.81	52% 4124-3876 (8000)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 70¢	$14	$20	+$6	60% 2481-1663 (4144)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 58.4¢	$8.52	$11	+$2.48	39% 873-1384 (2257)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 67¢	$15.73	$7.21	-$2.37	62% 2708-1636 (4344)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$6	—	-$6	44% 1344-1706 (3050)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 42¢	$4.2	$10	+$5.8	46% 1320-1541 (2861)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 69¢	$4.97	$7.2	+$2.23	66% 2317-1186 (3503)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 52¢	$3.12	—	-$3.12	37% 679-1149 (1828)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 67¢	$0.78	$1.17	+$0.39	37% 901-1503 (2404)