Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET
Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
21
Up 71%
6 arb excluded
$3.7K
-$648.41
Smart Money Signal
15 of 21 top traders (71%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | -$1.21 | 65% 127-68 (195) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $653.18 | $1.3K | +$699.51 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $653.55 | — | -$700.72 | |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $750 | — | -$651.27 | 51% 2225-2153 (4378) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 83.6¢ | $526.09 | $562.8 | +$42.63 | 51% 1409-1375 (2784) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.1¢ | $513.59 | $500 | +$7.54 | 56% 2419-1897 (4316) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.1¢ | $250.66 | $500 | +$254.9 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.6¢ | $248.07 | — | -$247.36 | |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BL blue.birdsARB<$100 | Upavg 55.7¢ | $176.29 | $180 | +$3.71 | 52% 4124-3876 (8000) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.7¢ | $100.21 | $180 | +$79.79 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42¢ | $76.08 | — | -$76.08 | |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Upavg 65.1¢ | $162.84 | $168.59 | +$5.75 | 49% 3518-3623 (7141) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 65.1¢ | $109.68 | $168.59 | +$58.91 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 36.5¢ | $53.16 | — | -$53.16 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 66.9¢ | $128.57 | $126.32 | -$2.25 | 50% 1923-1911 (3834) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 66.9¢ | $84.55 | $126.32 | +$41.77 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 32.7¢ | $44.02 | — | -$44.02 | |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $81.98 | $80.54 | +$19.9 | 54% 1637-1402 (3039) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $57.11 | $57.69 | +$0.58 | 49% 927-964 (1891) |
RA rabadabadooARB<$100 | Upavg 63¢ | $48.27 | $45.69 | -$2.58 | 46% 965-1112 (2077) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 32.9¢ | $19.47 | — | -$19.47 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 63¢ | $28.8 | $45.69 | +$16.89 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 42.6¢ | $34.63 | — | -$25.01 | 62% 2708-1636 (4344) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 58.2¢ | $16.19 | $27.83 | +$11.64 | 37% 901-1503 (2404) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 40.5¢ | $23.87 | — | -$23.87 | 53% 656-587 (1243) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 79.2¢ | $35.87 | $42.56 | +$6.69 | 47% 1374-1576 (2950) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 68.7¢ | $14.8 | $21.55 | +$6.75 | 52% 1784-1636 (3420) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 63.6¢ | $12.28 | $19.31 | +$7.03 | 48% 1558-1684 (3242) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 39.1¢ | $19.82 | — | -$19.82 | 48% 1336-1466 (2802) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 76.3¢ | $16.77 | $15 | +$3.65 | 53% 1432-1294 (2726) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 78¢ | $13.82 | $17.72 | +$3.9 | 39% 873-1384 (2257) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 73.5¢ | $12.35 | $16.81 | +$4.46 | 66% 2317-1186 (3503) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Upavg 59¢ | $7.67 | $13 | +$5.33 | 58% 4587-3378 (7965) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 28.2¢ | $8.46 | — | -$8.46 | 46% 1320-1541 (2861) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 29.3¢ | $34.55 | — | -$34.55 | 48% 1221-1313 (2534) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 78¢ | $5.93 | $7.6 | +$1.67 | 33% 675-1344 (2019) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$1.21
Record
65%
127-68 (195)
Both legs:
Invested
$750
Value
—
PnL
-$651.27
Record
51%
2225-2153 (4378)
Invested
$526.09
Value
$562.8
PnL
+$42.63
Record
51%
1409-1375 (2784)
Invested
$513.59
Value
$500
PnL
+$7.54
Record
56%
2419-1897 (4316)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$176.29
Value
$180
PnL
+$3.71
Record
52%
4124-3876 (8000)
Both legs:
Invested
$162.84
Value
$168.59
PnL
+$5.75
Record
49%
3518-3623 (7141)
Both legs:
Invested
$128.57
Value
$126.32
PnL
-$2.25
Record
50%
1923-1911 (3834)
Both legs:
Invested
$81.98
Value
$80.54
PnL
+$19.9
Record
54%
1637-1402 (3039)
Invested
$57.11
Value
$57.69
PnL
+$0.58
Record
49%
927-964 (1891)
Invested
$48.27
Value
$45.69
PnL
-$2.58
Record
46%
965-1112 (2077)
Both legs:
Invested
$34.63
Value
—
PnL
-$25.01
Record
62%
2708-1636 (4344)
Invested
$16.19
Value
$27.83
PnL
+$11.64
Record
37%
901-1503 (2404)
Invested
$23.87
Value
—
PnL
-$23.87
Record
53%
656-587 (1243)
Invested
$35.87
Value
$42.56
PnL
+$6.69
Record
47%
1374-1576 (2950)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$14.8
Value
$21.55
PnL
+$6.75
Record
52%
1784-1636 (3420)
Invested
$12.28
Value
$19.31
PnL
+$7.03
Record
48%
1558-1684 (3242)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$19.82
Value
—
PnL
-$19.82
Record
48%
1336-1466 (2802)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$16.77
Value
$15
PnL
+$3.65
Record
53%
1432-1294 (2726)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$13.82
Value
$17.72
PnL
+$3.9
Record
39%
873-1384 (2257)
Invested
$12.35
Value
$16.81
PnL
+$4.46
Record
66%
2317-1186 (3503)
Invested
$7.67
Value
$13
PnL
+$5.33
Record
58%
4587-3378 (7965)
Invested
$8.46
Value
—
PnL
-$8.46
Record
46%
1320-1541 (2861)
Invested
$34.55
Value
—
PnL
-$34.55
Record
48%
1221-1313 (2534)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$5.93
Value
$7.6
PnL
+$1.67
Record
33%
675-1344 (2019)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
uninformedfloww
Up — $562.8
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
blue.birds
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
Up — $80.54
0x50f7
Up — $57.69