Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
21
Up 67%
2 arb excluded
$977.21
$-2.8K
Smart Money Signal
14 of 21 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 65% 127-68 (195) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $750 | — | -$699.8 | 51% 2225-2153 (4378) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.6¢ | $509.56 | $493.89 | -$5.35 | 56% 2419-1897 (4316) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.4¢ | $248.71 | $493.89 | +$247.39 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.6¢ | $252.74 | — | -$252.74 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.7¢ | $132.27 | $134 | +$1.73 | 98% 2353-45 (2398) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 64.9¢ | $87.1 | $87.47 | +$0.37 | 52% 4124-3876 (8000) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 59.2¢ | $101.93 | $88.99 | -$12.94 | 50% 1923-1911 (3834) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59.2¢ | $52.71 | $88.99 | +$36.29 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $49.22 | — | -$49.22 | |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 44.1¢ | $98.2 | — | -$98.2 | 49% 3518-3623 (7141) |
SU suntori | Downavg 31.2¢ | $42.94 | $137.71 | +$94.77 | 47% 1666-1892 (3558) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 58¢ | $58.23 | — | -$58.23 | 53% 1432-1294 (2726) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 55.5¢ | $45.06 | — | -$45.06 | 54% 1637-1402 (3039) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 40.8¢ | $37.03 | — | -$37.03 | 46% 965-1112 (2077) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 49.9¢ | $32.64 | — | -$32.64 | 48% 1221-1313 (2534) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 74.3¢ | $11.87 | $15 | +$3.13 | 52% 1784-1636 (3420) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $4.6 | $10 | +$5.4 | 46% 1320-1541 (2861) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 34¢ | $10.2 | — | -$10.2 | 44% 1344-1706 (3050) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 52.9¢ | $9.2 | — | -$9.2 | 66% 2317-1186 (3503) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 20¢ | $11.81 | — | -$11.81 | 47% 1374-1576 (2950) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $5 | +$2.35 | 58% 4587-3378 (7965) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 32¢ | $4.7 | $5.16 | +$3.06 | 62% 2708-1636 (4344) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $1.94 | — | -$1.94 | 37% 679-1149 (1828) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 34.4¢ | $2.66 | — | -$2.66 | 48% 1558-1684 (3242) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $2.4 | — | -$2.4 | 39% 873-1384 (2257) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
65%
127-68 (195)
Invested
$750
Value
—
PnL
-$699.8
Record
51%
2225-2153 (4378)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$509.56
Value
$493.89
PnL
-$5.35
Record
56%
2419-1897 (4316)
Both legs:
Invested
$132.27
Value
$134
PnL
+$1.73
Record
98%
2353-45 (2398)
Invested
$87.1
Value
$87.47
PnL
+$0.37
Record
52%
4124-3876 (8000)
Invested
$101.93
Value
$88.99
PnL
-$12.94
Record
50%
1923-1911 (3834)
Both legs:
Invested
$98.2
Value
—
PnL
-$98.2
Record
49%
3518-3623 (7141)
Invested
$42.94
Value
$137.71
PnL
+$94.77
Record
47%
1666-1892 (3558)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$58.23
Value
—
PnL
-$58.23
Record
53%
1432-1294 (2726)
Invested
$45.06
Value
—
PnL
-$45.06
Record
54%
1637-1402 (3039)
Invested
$37.03
Value
—
PnL
-$37.03
Record
46%
965-1112 (2077)
Invested
$32.64
Value
—
PnL
-$32.64
Record
48%
1221-1313 (2534)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$11.87
Value
$15
PnL
+$3.13
Record
52%
1784-1636 (3420)
Invested
$4.6
Value
$10
PnL
+$5.4
Record
46%
1320-1541 (2861)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$10.2
Value
—
PnL
-$10.2
Record
44%
1344-1706 (3050)
Invested
$9.2
Value
—
PnL
-$9.2
Record
66%
2317-1186 (3503)
Invested
$11.81
Value
—
PnL
-$11.81
Record
47%
1374-1576 (2950)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.35
Record
58%
4587-3378 (7965)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$5.16
PnL
+$3.06
Record
62%
2708-1636 (4344)
Invested
$1.94
Value
—
PnL
-$1.94
Record
37%
679-1149 (1828)
Invested
$2.66
Value
—
PnL
-$2.66
Record
48%
1558-1684 (3242)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$2.4
Value
—
PnL
-$2.4
Record
39%
873-1384 (2257)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $134
blue.birds
Down — $87.47
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
CTRUp — $0
suntori
Down — $137.71
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0