Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET
Resolved Up. 29% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
24
Down 29%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
$-1.8K
Smart Money Signal
7 of 24 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 65% 127-68 (195) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.8¢ | $506.44 | $504.99 | +$6.4 | 56% 2419-1897 (4316) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.8¢ | $251.7 | $504.99 | +$254.1 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.5¢ | $247.3 | — | -$247.7 | |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 97.3¢ | $341.44 | $350.8 | +$9.36 | 74% 1097-389 (1486) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 43.9¢ | $433.29 | — | -$422.04 | 51% 1409-1375 (2784) |
HC Hcrystallash | Upavg 99¢ | $174.24 | $176 | +$1.76 | 58% 4587-3378 (7965) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 74.1¢ | $94 | $87.74 | -$6.25 | 50% 1923-1911 (3834) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 47.4¢ | $54.35 | $69.27 | +$14.91 | 54% 1637-1402 (3039) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $44.15 | $45 | +$0.85 | 52% 4124-3876 (8000) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 75.8¢ | $51.79 | $45.06 | -$6.73 | 51% 2225-2153 (4378) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 58.2¢ | $38.3 | $40 | +$1.7 | 53% 1432-1294 (2726) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 48.1¢ | $29.26 | $60.79 | +$31.53 | 48% 1221-1313 (2534) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Downavg 46.7¢ | $32.75 | — | -$32.75 | 46% 965-1112 (2077) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 55.3¢ | $20.62 | $24 | +$3.38 | 48% 1336-1466 (2802) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $13.3 | $20 | +$6.7 | 44% 1344-1706 (3050) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 82.6¢ | $14.47 | $17.51 | +$3.04 | 48% 1558-1684 (3242) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 72¢ | $16.5 | $20 | +$3.5 | 46% 1320-1541 (2861) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 86.3¢ | $13.65 | $15.82 | +$2.17 | 66% 2317-1186 (3503) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 76.3¢ | $12.7 | $13.44 | +$0.74 | 62% 2708-1636 (4344) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 29¢ | $7.04 | — | -$7.04 | 60% 2481-1663 (4144) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 88.5¢ | $10.4 | $10.28 | -$0.12 | 63% 1621-961 (2582) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $13.28 | — | -$12.19 | 47% 1374-1576 (2950) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 76¢ | $4.49 | $4.99 | +$0.5 | 52% 1784-1636 (3420) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 17¢ | $1.02 | — | -$1.02 | 37% 679-1149 (1828) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 3¢ | $4.43 | — | -$4.43 | 39% 873-1384 (2257) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
65%
127-68 (195)
Invested
$506.44
Value
$504.99
PnL
+$6.4
Record
56%
2419-1897 (4316)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
BoneOhioInvested
$341.44
Value
$350.8
PnL
+$9.36
Record
74%
1097-389 (1486)
Invested
$433.29
Value
—
PnL
-$422.04
Record
51%
1409-1375 (2784)
Invested
$174.24
Value
$176
PnL
+$1.76
Record
58%
4587-3378 (7965)
Invested
$94
Value
$87.74
PnL
-$6.25
Record
50%
1923-1911 (3834)
Invested
$54.35
Value
$69.27
PnL
+$14.91
Record
54%
1637-1402 (3039)
Invested
$44.15
Value
$45
PnL
+$0.85
Record
52%
4124-3876 (8000)
Invested
$51.79
Value
$45.06
PnL
-$6.73
Record
51%
2225-2153 (4378)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$38.3
Value
$40
PnL
+$1.7
Record
53%
1432-1294 (2726)
Invested
$29.26
Value
$60.79
PnL
+$31.53
Record
48%
1221-1313 (2534)
Invested
$32.75
Value
—
PnL
-$32.75
Record
46%
965-1112 (2077)
ohioism<$100Invested
$20.62
Value
$24
PnL
+$3.38
Record
48%
1336-1466 (2802)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$13.3
Value
$20
PnL
+$6.7
Record
44%
1344-1706 (3050)
Invested
$14.47
Value
$17.51
PnL
+$3.04
Record
48%
1558-1684 (3242)
Invested
$16.5
Value
$20
PnL
+$3.5
Record
46%
1320-1541 (2861)
Invested
$13.65
Value
$15.82
PnL
+$2.17
Record
66%
2317-1186 (3503)
Invested
$12.7
Value
$13.44
PnL
+$0.74
Record
62%
2708-1636 (4344)
Invested
$7.04
Value
—
PnL
-$7.04
Record
60%
2481-1663 (4144)
Invested
$10.4
Value
$10.28
PnL
-$0.12
Record
63%
1621-961 (2582)
Invested
$13.28
Value
—
PnL
-$12.19
Record
47%
1374-1576 (2950)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$4.49
Value
$4.99
PnL
+$0.5
Record
52%
1784-1636 (3420)
Invested
$1.02
Value
—
PnL
-$1.02
Record
37%
679-1149 (1828)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$4.43
Value
—
PnL
-$4.43
Record
39%
873-1384 (2257)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
BoneOhio
Up — $350.8
uninformedfloww
CTRDown — $0
Hcrystallash
Up — $176
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $87.74
ply-pm2
Up — $69.27
blue.birds
Up — $45
soswald1
Up — $45.06