Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Up β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET
Resolved Up. 52% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
π
Won
21
Up 52%
3 arb excluded
$2.9K
-$98.58
Smart Money Signal
11 of 21 top traders (52%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50Β’ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$9.49 | 65% 127-68 (195) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50Β’ | $729.42 | $1.5K | +$729.71 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50Β’ | $727.73 | β | -$720.22 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.6Β’ | $503.48 | $500 | -$3.48 | 56% 2419-1897 (4316) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50Β’ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 49.6Β’ | $253.48 | β | -$253.48 | |
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100 | Downavg 50Β’ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | β |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50Β’ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50Β’ | $250 | β | -$250 | |
HC Hcrystallash | Upavg 99Β’ | $257.2 | $248.97 | -$8.18 | 58% 4587-3378 (7965) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 80.2Β’ | $47.05 | $35.3 | -$11.75 | 54% 1637-1402 (3039) |
![]() Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 47.2Β’ | $30.17 | β | -$20.87 | 53% 1432-1294 (2726) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 89Β’ | $15.83 | $15 | -$0.83 | 52% 4124-3876 (8000) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 95Β’ | $18.15 | $15 | -$3.11 | 62% 2708-1636 (4344) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Downavg 45.9Β’ | $14.7 | β | -$14.7 | 48% 2255-2437 (4692) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 98Β’ | $22.57 | $14 | -$8.57 | 66% 2317-1186 (3503) |
![]() OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 13.5Β’ | $4.43 | $21 | +$16.57 | 39% 873-1384 (2257) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Upavg 25Β’ | $3 | $12 | +$9 | 37% 679-1149 (1828) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 88Β’ | $16.23 | $18.44 | +$2.21 | 60% 2481-1663 (4144) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Downavg 22Β’ | $10.09 | β | -$10.09 | 46% 965-1112 (2077) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 96.8Β’ | $6.79 | $7.01 | +$0.22 | 63% 1621-961 (2582) |
![]() pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 12Β’ | $1.44 | $12 | +$10.56 | 33% 675-1344 (2019) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 46.3Β’ | $6.68 | β | -$6.68 | 50% 466-464 (930) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Downavg 29.5Β’ | $7.1 | β | -$7.1 | 51% 2225-2153 (4378) |
![]() G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 9.2Β’ | $5.39 | β | -$5.39 | 44% 1344-1706 (3050) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 3.9Β’ | $6.02 | β | -$6.02 | 49% 927-964 (1891) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 76Β’ | $2.8 | $3.68 | +$0.88 | 47% 1374-1576 (2950) |
![]() MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 12.5Β’ | $2.01 | β | -$2.01 | 52% 1784-1636 (3420) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 11.7Β’ | $32.66 | β | -$32.66 | 51% 1409-1375 (2784) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1Β’ | $0.05 | β | -$0.05 | 37% 901-1503 (2404) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$9.49
Record
65%
127-68 (195)
Both legs:
Invested
$503.48
Value
$500
PnL
-$3.48
Record
56%
2419-1897 (4316)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
β
Both legs:
Invested
$257.2
Value
$248.97
PnL
-$8.18
Record
58%
4587-3378 (7965)
Invested
$47.05
Value
$35.3
PnL
-$11.75
Record
54%
1637-1402 (3039)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$30.17
Value
β
PnL
-$20.87
Record
53%
1432-1294 (2726)
Invested
$15.83
Value
$15
PnL
-$0.83
Record
52%
4124-3876 (8000)
Invested
$18.15
Value
$15
PnL
-$3.11
Record
62%
2708-1636 (4344)
Invested
$14.7
Value
β
PnL
-$14.7
Record
48%
2255-2437 (4692)
Invested
$22.57
Value
$14
PnL
-$8.57
Record
66%
2317-1186 (3503)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$4.43
Value
$21
PnL
+$16.57
Record
39%
873-1384 (2257)
Invested
$3
Value
$12
PnL
+$9
Record
37%
679-1149 (1828)
Invested
$16.23
Value
$18.44
PnL
+$2.21
Record
60%
2481-1663 (4144)
Invested
$10.09
Value
β
PnL
-$10.09
Record
46%
965-1112 (2077)
Invested
$6.79
Value
$7.01
PnL
+$0.22
Record
63%
1621-961 (2582)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$1.44
Value
$12
PnL
+$10.56
Record
33%
675-1344 (2019)
Invested
$6.68
Value
β
PnL
-$6.68
Record
50%
466-464 (930)
Invested
$7.1
Value
β
PnL
-$7.1
Record
51%
2225-2153 (4378)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$5.39
Value
β
PnL
-$5.39
Record
44%
1344-1706 (3050)
Invested
$6.02
Value
β
PnL
-$6.02
Record
49%
927-964 (1891)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$3.68
PnL
+$0.88
Record
47%
1374-1576 (2950)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$2.01
Value
β
PnL
-$2.01
Record
52%
1784-1636 (3420)
Invested
$32.66
Value
β
PnL
-$32.66
Record
51%
1409-1375 (2784)
Invested
$0.05
Value
β
PnL
-$0.05
Record
37%
901-1503 (2404)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage β excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage β excluded
QuantumPebble673
ARBArbitrage β excluded
Hcrystallash
Up β $248.97
ply-pm2
Up β $35.3

Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown β $0
blue.birds
Up β $15
drfc4eybh7i8
Up β $15
38791873984189
CTRDown β $0
asdaefef
Up β $14