Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET
Resolved Down. 32% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
22
Down 32%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
-$572.41
Smart Money Signal
7 of 22 top traders (32%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | +$3.5 | 65% 111-60 (171) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.5¢ | $504.75 | $480 | -$10.05 | 56% 2372-1839 (4211) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $240 | $480 | +$244.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.5¢ | $254.75 | — | -$254.75 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98¢ | $151.3 | $154.33 | +$3.03 | 98% 2299-45 (2344) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $12.42 | $23 | +$10.58 | 47% 1347-1530 (2877) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $19.5 | — | -$19.5 | 48% 772-820 (1592) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $18.8 | — | -$18.8 | 48% 1191-1298 (2489) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 81.3¢ | $18.68 | $15.09 | -$3.59 | 51% 2178-2103 (4281) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $14.22 | $13 | -$1.22 | 66% 2271-1160 (3431) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $8.8 | — | -$8.8 | 50% 1859-1828 (3687) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 2.1¢ | $2.27 | — | -$2.27 | 49% 903-945 (1848) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Upavg 31¢ | $5.27 | — | -$5.27 | 58% 4568-3363 (7931) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $10.12 | $6 | -$0.17 | 62% 2642-1602 (4244) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 23¢ | $6.9 | — | -$6.9 | 52% 4097-3832 (7929) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | $6.15 | — | -$6.15 | 54% 1603-1367 (2970) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 76.1¢ | $30.83 | $5 | +$10.94 | 53% 1399-1261 (2660) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | $4.92 | — | -$4.92 | 48% 1314-1432 (2746) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 8¢ | $1 | — | -$1 | 48% 1515-1649 (3164) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 6¢ | $0.3 | — | -$0.3 | 52% 1755-1602 (3357) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $1.32 | — | -$1.32 | 39% 852-1352 (2204) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 24¢ | $7.2 | — | -$7.2 | 44% 1316-1666 (2982) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 37.2¢ | $11.15 | — | -$11.15 | 46% 1298-1506 (2804) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 24¢ | $1.9 | — | -$1.9 | 47% 943-1084 (2027) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$3.5
Record
65%
111-60 (171)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$504.75
Value
$480
PnL
-$10.05
Record
56%
2372-1839 (4211)
Both legs:
Invested
$151.3
Value
$154.33
PnL
+$3.03
Record
98%
2299-45 (2344)
Invested
$12.42
Value
$23
PnL
+$10.58
Record
47%
1347-1530 (2877)
Invested
$19.5
Value
—
PnL
-$19.5
Record
48%
772-820 (1592)
Invested
$18.8
Value
—
PnL
-$18.8
Record
48%
1191-1298 (2489)
Invested
$18.68
Value
$15.09
PnL
-$3.59
Record
51%
2178-2103 (4281)
Invested
$14.22
Value
$13
PnL
-$1.22
Record
66%
2271-1160 (3431)
Invested
$8.8
Value
—
PnL
-$8.8
Record
50%
1859-1828 (3687)
Invested
$2.27
Value
—
PnL
-$2.27
Record
49%
903-945 (1848)
Invested
$5.27
Value
—
PnL
-$5.27
Record
58%
4568-3363 (7931)
Invested
$10.12
Value
$6
PnL
-$0.17
Record
62%
2642-1602 (4244)
Invested
$6.9
Value
—
PnL
-$6.9
Record
52%
4097-3832 (7929)
Invested
$6.15
Value
—
PnL
-$6.15
Record
54%
1603-1367 (2970)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$30.83
Value
$5
PnL
+$10.94
Record
53%
1399-1261 (2660)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$4.92
Value
—
PnL
-$4.92
Record
48%
1314-1432 (2746)
Invested
$1
Value
—
PnL
-$1
Record
48%
1515-1649 (3164)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.3
Value
—
PnL
-$0.3
Record
52%
1755-1602 (3357)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.32
Value
—
PnL
-$1.32
Record
39%
852-1352 (2204)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$7.2
Value
—
PnL
-$7.2
Record
44%
1316-1666 (2982)
Invested
$11.15
Value
—
PnL
-$11.15
Record
46%
1298-1506 (2804)
Invested
$1.9
Value
—
PnL
-$1.9
Record
47%
943-1084 (2027)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Down — $1.4K
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $154.33
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $23
PBot-5
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
Down — $15.09
asdaefef
Down — $13
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0