Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Up β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
π
Won
18
Up 50%
2 arb excluded
$2.7K
-$76
Smart Money Signal
9 of 18 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50Β’ | $1.5K | $1.4K | +$0.11 | 65% 111-60 (171) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50Β’ | $724.68 | $1.4K | +$738.74 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50Β’ | $722.62 | β | -$738.63 | |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50Β’ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | β |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50Β’ | $500 | $490.01 | -$2.1 | 56% 2372-1839 (4211) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50Β’ | $245 | $490.01 | +$247.9 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50Β’ | $250 | β | -$250 | |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Upavg 99Β’ | $89.17 | $90.07 | +$0.9 | 58% 4568-3363 (7931) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 88.6Β’ | $26.4 | $26.98 | +$0.59 | 51% 2178-2103 (4281) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 83Β’ | $25.67 | $25 | -$0.67 | 50% 1859-1828 (3687) |
![]() Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 50Β’ | $35.2 | β | -$17.6 | 53% 1399-1261 (2660) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 76.5Β’ | $18.3 | $20 | +$1.7 | 54% 1603-1367 (2970) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 50.6Β’ | $13.65 | $27 | +$13.35 | 48% 1191-1298 (2489) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 78Β’ | $12.54 | $9.93 | +$0.61 | 62% 2642-1602 (4244) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 79Β’ | $8.33 | $10.54 | +$2.21 | 60% 2431-1634 (4065) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 80Β’ | $7.39 | $5.28 | -$2.12 | 47% 943-1084 (2027) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Downavg 11.1Β’ | $2 | β | -$2 | 52% 4097-3832 (7929) |
![]() G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 28.2Β’ | $1.9 | β | -$1.9 | 44% 1316-1666 (2982) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 3.3Β’ | $2.61 | β | -$2.61 | 49% 903-945 (1848) |
![]() MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 13.6Β’ | $1.66 | β | -$1.66 | 52% 1755-1602 (3357) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 15.4Β’ | $45.18 | β | -$45.18 | 51% 1376-1320 (2696) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Downavg 13.3Β’ | $21.48 | β | -$21.48 | 47% 1625-1826 (3451) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 8Β’ | $0.09 | β | -$0.09 | 38% 657-1093 (1750) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1Β’ | $0.05 | β | -$0.05 | 38% 880-1457 (2337) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$0.11
Record
65%
111-60 (171)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
β
Invested
$500
Value
$490.01
PnL
-$2.1
Record
56%
2372-1839 (4211)
Both legs:
Invested
$89.17
Value
$90.07
PnL
+$0.9
Record
58%
4568-3363 (7931)
Invested
$26.4
Value
$26.98
PnL
+$0.59
Record
51%
2178-2103 (4281)
Invested
$25.67
Value
$25
PnL
-$0.67
Record
50%
1859-1828 (3687)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$35.2
Value
β
PnL
-$17.6
Record
53%
1399-1261 (2660)
Invested
$18.3
Value
$20
PnL
+$1.7
Record
54%
1603-1367 (2970)
Invested
$13.65
Value
$27
PnL
+$13.35
Record
48%
1191-1298 (2489)
Invested
$12.54
Value
$9.93
PnL
+$0.61
Record
62%
2642-1602 (4244)
Invested
$8.33
Value
$10.54
PnL
+$2.21
Record
60%
2431-1634 (4065)
Invested
$7.39
Value
$5.28
PnL
-$2.12
Record
47%
943-1084 (2027)
Invested
$2
Value
β
PnL
-$2
Record
52%
4097-3832 (7929)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$1.9
Value
β
PnL
-$1.9
Record
44%
1316-1666 (2982)
Invested
$2.61
Value
β
PnL
-$2.61
Record
49%
903-945 (1848)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$1.66
Value
β
PnL
-$1.66
Record
52%
1755-1602 (3357)
Invested
$45.18
Value
β
PnL
-$45.18
Record
51%
1376-1320 (2696)
Invested
$21.48
Value
β
PnL
-$21.48
Record
47%
1625-1826 (3451)
Invested
$0.09
Value
β
PnL
-$0.09
Record
38%
657-1093 (1750)
Invested
$0.05
Value
β
PnL
-$0.05
Record
38%
880-1457 (2337)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage β excluded
QuantumPebble673
Up β $500
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage β excluded
Hcrystallash
Up β $90.07
soswald1
Up β $26.98
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up β $25

Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown β $0
ply-pm2
Up β $20
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up β $27
drfc4eybh7i8
Up β $9.93