Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 48% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
23
Down 48%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
$-1.3K
Smart Money Signal
11 of 23 top traders (48%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 65% 111-60 (171) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.9¢ | $509.4 | $504 | +$2.5 | 56% 2372-1839 (4211) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $251.31 | $504 | +$252.1 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250.1 | — | -$249.6 | |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Upavg 10.4¢ | $15.18 | $146 | +$130.82 | 38% 657-1093 (1750) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 57.7¢ | $106.55 | $107.62 | +$1.07 | 50% 1859-1828 (3687) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 62.3¢ | $85.81 | $105.96 | +$20.15 | 52% 4097-3832 (7929) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 98.1¢ | $68.65 | $70 | +$1.35 | 98% 2299-45 (2344) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 71.1¢ | $52.55 | $40.86 | -$11.7 | 54% 1603-1367 (2970) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 93.8¢ | $132.54 | $30.88 | -$10.31 | 53% 1399-1261 (2660) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $24.85 | — | -$24.85 | 51% 1376-1320 (2696) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 93.6¢ | $22.82 | $20.09 | -$2.73 | 66% 2271-1160 (3431) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 60.7¢ | $20.2 | $22.9 | +$2.7 | 60% 2431-1634 (4065) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 54.2¢ | $20.44 | $17.22 | -$1.97 | 47% 943-1084 (2027) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $17.17 | $15.25 | -$1.92 | 48% 1314-1432 (2746) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 28.2¢ | $9.57 | — | -$9.57 | 46% 1298-1506 (2804) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 21¢ | $9.44 | — | -$5.38 | 52% 1755-1602 (3357) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 27¢ | $12.31 | — | -$12.31 | 47% 1347-1530 (2877) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Downavg 36.3¢ | $9.71 | — | -$9.71 | 51% 2178-2103 (4281) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 42¢ | $6.76 | $16.1 | +$9.34 | 48% 1191-1298 (2489) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Downavg 42¢ | $21.49 | — | +$6.18 | 47% 1625-1826 (3451) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $3.5 | — | -$3.5 | 62% 2642-1602 (4244) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 3¢ | $1.32 | — | -$1.32 | 39% 852-1352 (2204) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 2.6¢ | $0.21 | — | -$0.21 | 33% 663-1321 (1984) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 10.6¢ | $15.05 | — | -$15.05 | 44% 1316-1666 (2982) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
65%
111-60 (171)
Invested
$509.4
Value
$504
PnL
+$2.5
Record
56%
2372-1839 (4211)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$15.18
Value
$146
PnL
+$130.82
Record
38%
657-1093 (1750)
Invested
$106.55
Value
$107.62
PnL
+$1.07
Record
50%
1859-1828 (3687)
Invested
$85.81
Value
$105.96
PnL
+$20.15
Record
52%
4097-3832 (7929)
Invested
$68.65
Value
$70
PnL
+$1.35
Record
98%
2299-45 (2344)
Invested
$52.55
Value
$40.86
PnL
-$11.7
Record
54%
1603-1367 (2970)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$132.54
Value
$30.88
PnL
-$10.31
Record
53%
1399-1261 (2660)
Invested
$24.85
Value
—
PnL
-$24.85
Record
51%
1376-1320 (2696)
Invested
$22.82
Value
$20.09
PnL
-$2.73
Record
66%
2271-1160 (3431)
Invested
$20.2
Value
$22.9
PnL
+$2.7
Record
60%
2431-1634 (4065)
Invested
$20.44
Value
$17.22
PnL
-$1.97
Record
47%
943-1084 (2027)
ohioism<$100Invested
$17.17
Value
$15.25
PnL
-$1.92
Record
48%
1314-1432 (2746)
Invested
$9.57
Value
—
PnL
-$9.57
Record
46%
1298-1506 (2804)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$9.44
Value
—
PnL
-$5.38
Record
52%
1755-1602 (3357)
Invested
$12.31
Value
—
PnL
-$12.31
Record
47%
1347-1530 (2877)
Invested
$9.71
Value
—
PnL
-$9.71
Record
51%
2178-2103 (4281)
Invested
$6.76
Value
$16.1
PnL
+$9.34
Record
48%
1191-1298 (2489)
Invested
$21.49
Value
—
PnL
+$6.18
Record
47%
1625-1826 (3451)
Invested
$3.5
Value
—
PnL
-$3.5
Record
62%
2642-1602 (4244)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.32
Value
—
PnL
-$1.32
Record
39%
852-1352 (2204)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.21
Value
—
PnL
-$0.21
Record
33%
663-1321 (1984)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$15.05
Value
—
PnL
-$15.05
Record
44%
1316-1666 (2982)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Up — $146
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $107.62
blue.birds
Up — $105.96
hoodquant
Up — $70
ply-pm2
Up — $40.86
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $30.88
uninformedfloww
CTRDown — $0