Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET
Resolved Up. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
21
Down 43%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
$-2.6K
Smart Money Signal
9 of 21 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 65% 111-60 (171) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $750 | — | -$713.01 | 51% 2178-2103 (4281) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.3¢ | $513.16 | $500.04 | +$1.23 | 56% 2372-1839 (4211) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.3¢ | $251.5 | $500.04 | +$249.32 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.4¢ | $247.26 | — | -$248.09 | |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 93.9¢ | $232.87 | $247.94 | +$15.07 | 48% 1191-1298 (2489) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 71.7¢ | $133.74 | $134.57 | +$0.83 | 52% 4097-3832 (7929) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 61.9¢ | $89.86 | $96.91 | +$7.06 | 50% 1859-1828 (3687) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 76.4¢ | $86.23 | $65.21 | -$5.89 | 53% 1399-1261 (2660) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 69.3¢ | $35.58 | $45 | +$9.42 | 54% 1603-1367 (2970) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 49.7¢ | $28.31 | $33.18 | +$4.87 | 47% 943-1084 (2027) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 56.2¢ | $34 | $50.74 | +$16.74 | 51% 1376-1320 (2696) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Downavg 27.6¢ | $33.24 | — | -$7.6 | 47% 1625-1826 (3451) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 48.5¢ | $9.7 | $20 | +$10.3 | 52% 1755-1602 (3357) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 79.1¢ | $19.05 | $20.67 | +$1.62 | 66% 2271-1160 (3431) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 65.9¢ | $17.5 | $18.22 | +$1.64 | 62% 2642-1602 (4244) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $10.89 | $11 | +$0.11 | 98% 2299-45 (2344) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 20¢ | $5.93 | — | -$5.93 | 44% 1316-1666 (2982) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $12.39 | — | -$12.39 | 47% 1347-1530 (2877) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $4.65 | — | -$4.65 | 39% 852-1352 (2204) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $5 | +$2.45 | 58% 4568-3363 (7931) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 26¢ | $1.56 | — | -$1.56 | 38% 657-1093 (1750) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 40.3¢ | $26.12 | — | -$26.12 | 46% 1298-1506 (2804) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
65%
111-60 (171)
Invested
$750
Value
—
PnL
-$713.01
Record
51%
2178-2103 (4281)
Invested
$513.16
Value
$500.04
PnL
+$1.23
Record
56%
2372-1839 (4211)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$232.87
Value
$247.94
PnL
+$15.07
Record
48%
1191-1298 (2489)
Invested
$133.74
Value
$134.57
PnL
+$0.83
Record
52%
4097-3832 (7929)
Invested
$89.86
Value
$96.91
PnL
+$7.06
Record
50%
1859-1828 (3687)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$86.23
Value
$65.21
PnL
-$5.89
Record
53%
1399-1261 (2660)
Invested
$35.58
Value
$45
PnL
+$9.42
Record
54%
1603-1367 (2970)
Invested
$28.31
Value
$33.18
PnL
+$4.87
Record
47%
943-1084 (2027)
Invested
$34
Value
$50.74
PnL
+$16.74
Record
51%
1376-1320 (2696)
Invested
$33.24
Value
—
PnL
-$7.6
Record
47%
1625-1826 (3451)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$9.7
Value
$20
PnL
+$10.3
Record
52%
1755-1602 (3357)
Invested
$19.05
Value
$20.67
PnL
+$1.62
Record
66%
2271-1160 (3431)
Invested
$17.5
Value
$18.22
PnL
+$1.64
Record
62%
2642-1602 (4244)
Invested
$10.89
Value
$11
PnL
+$0.11
Record
98%
2299-45 (2344)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$5.93
Value
—
PnL
-$5.93
Record
44%
1316-1666 (2982)
Invested
$12.39
Value
—
PnL
-$12.39
Record
47%
1347-1530 (2877)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$4.65
Value
—
PnL
-$4.65
Record
39%
852-1352 (2204)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.45
Record
58%
4568-3363 (7931)
Invested
$1.56
Value
—
PnL
-$1.56
Record
38%
657-1093 (1750)
Invested
$26.12
Value
—
PnL
-$26.12
Record
46%
1298-1506 (2804)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
QuantumPebble673
CTRDown — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $247.94
blue.birds
Up — $134.57
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $96.91
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $65.21
ply-pm2
Up — $45
rabadabadoo
Up — $33.18