Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET
Resolved Up. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
21
Down 43%
$1.2K
$-1.9K
Smart Money Signal
9 of 21 top traders (43%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 65% 111-60 (171) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$493.6 | 56% 2372-1839 (4211) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $290.08 | $293.01 | +$2.93 | 98% 2299-45 (2344) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 86.9¢ | $141.61 | $163 | +$21.39 | 51% 1376-1320 (2696) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 74.2¢ | $44.51 | $60 | +$15.49 | 60% 2431-1634 (4065) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 77.9¢ | $43.62 | $54 | +$10.38 | 50% 1859-1828 (3687) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 82.5¢ | $41.25 | $50 | +$8.75 | 51% 2178-2103 (4281) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 67.1¢ | $48.88 | $30.48 | +$1.2 | 53% 1399-1261 (2660) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $12.19 | $15 | +$2.81 | 54% 1603-1367 (2970) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 80¢ | $8.3 | $10.38 | +$2.07 | 66% 2271-1160 (3431) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 92¢ | $6.44 | $7 | +$0.56 | 47% 1347-1530 (2877) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 80¢ | $4.2 | $5.25 | +$1.05 | 63% 1587-944 (2531) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 80¢ | $4.15 | $5.19 | +$1.04 | 48% 1515-1649 (3164) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 12¢ | $5.5 | — | -$1.58 | 62% 2642-1602 (4244) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Downavg 33¢ | $1.67 | — | -$1.67 | 47% 943-1084 (2027) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 4.9¢ | $0.78 | — | -$0.78 | 52% 1755-1602 (3357) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Downavg 7¢ | $0.41 | — | -$0.41 | 52% 4097-3832 (7929) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Downavg 29.5¢ | $53.27 | — | -$53.27 | 47% 1625-1826 (3451) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $1.31 | — | -$1.31 | 39% 852-1352 (2204) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.02 | — | -$0.02 | 33% 663-1321 (1984) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
65%
111-60 (171)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$493.6
Record
56%
2372-1839 (4211)
Invested
$290.08
Value
$293.01
PnL
+$2.93
Record
98%
2299-45 (2344)
Invested
$141.61
Value
$163
PnL
+$21.39
Record
51%
1376-1320 (2696)
Invested
$44.51
Value
$60
PnL
+$15.49
Record
60%
2431-1634 (4065)
Invested
$43.62
Value
$54
PnL
+$10.38
Record
50%
1859-1828 (3687)
Invested
$41.25
Value
$50
PnL
+$8.75
Record
51%
2178-2103 (4281)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$48.88
Value
$30.48
PnL
+$1.2
Record
53%
1399-1261 (2660)
Invested
$12.19
Value
$15
PnL
+$2.81
Record
54%
1603-1367 (2970)
Invested
$8.3
Value
$10.38
PnL
+$2.07
Record
66%
2271-1160 (3431)
Invested
$6.44
Value
$7
PnL
+$0.56
Record
47%
1347-1530 (2877)
Invested
$4.2
Value
$5.25
PnL
+$1.05
Record
63%
1587-944 (2531)
Invested
$4.15
Value
$5.19
PnL
+$1.04
Record
48%
1515-1649 (3164)
Invested
$5.5
Value
—
PnL
-$1.58
Record
62%
2642-1602 (4244)
Invested
$1.67
Value
—
PnL
-$1.67
Record
47%
943-1084 (2027)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.78
Value
—
PnL
-$0.78
Record
52%
1755-1602 (3357)
Invested
$0.41
Value
—
PnL
-$0.41
Record
52%
4097-3832 (7929)
Invested
$53.27
Value
—
PnL
-$53.27
Record
47%
1625-1826 (3451)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.31
Value
—
PnL
-$1.31
Record
39%
852-1352 (2204)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.02
Value
—
PnL
-$0.02
Record
33%
663-1321 (1984)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $293.01
uninformedfloww
Up — $163
aaa221
Up — $60
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $54
soswald1
Up — $50
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $30.48
ply-pm2
Up — $15