Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET

9 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Down (47%) · Down at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 47%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$42.11

Smart Money Entry

65.7¢ → 100¢

+52% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 19 top traders (47%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,962

Combined PnL-$45.35

Down9 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,519

Combined PnL+$3.23

Up — 53%Down — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$2.09	64% 95-53 (148)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2370-1839 (4209)
QU QuantumPebble673	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 99¢	$308.19	$311.14	+$2.96	58% 4542-3345 (7887)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$137.61	$138.31	+$0.69	98% 2252-45 (2297)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 41.9¢	$33.85	$34.8	+$0.95	53% 1367-1231 (2598)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 72.2¢	$29.42	$28.84	-$0.58	54% 1563-1340 (2903)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 80¢	$16	$17.5	+$1.5	60% 2389-1604 (3993)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 92.8¢	$10.32	$11.12	+$0.8	66% 2224-1129 (3353)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 51¢	$4.67	$4.58	-$0.09	47% 1583-1774 (3357)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 49¢	$7.7	$4.49	-$2.21	62% 2576-1569 (4145)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$1.31	$3.28	+$1.97	33% 646-1294 (1940)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$1.32	$1.65	+$0.33	39% 828-1318 (2146)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 37¢	$1.85	$1.63	-$0.23	44% 1290-1624 (2914)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 48¢	$0.92	$1	+$0.08	46% 1269-1467 (2736)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.15	$0.38	+$0.22	52% 1724-1588 (3312)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 4.9¢	$0.3	$0.16	-$0.15	38% 650-1081 (1731)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 20.5¢	$42	$0.1	-$41.9	51% 1347-1269 (2616)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Upavg 30.3¢	$8.56	$0.01	-$8.55	51% 2130-2057 (4187)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$2.09

Record

64%

95-53 (148)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

QuantumPebble673

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$308.19

Value

$311.14

PnL

+$2.96

Record

58%

4542-3345 (7887)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$137.61

Value

$138.31

PnL

+$0.69

Record

98%

2252-45 (2297)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$33.85

Value

$34.8

PnL

+$0.95

Record

53%

1367-1231 (2598)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$29.42

Value

$28.84

PnL

-$0.58

Record

54%

1563-1340 (2903)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$16

Value

$17.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

60%

2389-1604 (3993)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$10.32

Value

$11.12

PnL

+$0.8

Record

66%

2224-1129 (3353)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$4.67

Value

$4.58

PnL

-$0.09

Record

47%

1583-1774 (3357)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$7.7

Value

$4.49

PnL

-$2.21

Record

62%

2576-1569 (4145)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$1.31

Value

$3.28

PnL

+$1.97

Record

33%

646-1294 (1940)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$1.32

Value

$1.65

PnL

+$0.33

Record

39%

828-1318 (2146)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$1.85

Value

$1.63

PnL

-$0.23

Record

44%

1290-1624 (2914)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$0.92

Value

PnL

+$0.08

Record

46%

1269-1467 (2736)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.38

PnL

+$0.22

Record

52%

1724-1588 (3312)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$0.15

Record

38%

650-1081 (1731)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$42

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$41.9

Record

51%

1347-1269 (2616)

soswald1CTR<$100

Invested

$8.56

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$8.55

Record

51%

2130-2057 (4187)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 19 top traders (47%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.