Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET

12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Down (67%) · Down at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$28.35

Smart Money Entry

73.5¢ → 99.5¢

+35% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 18 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares2,945

Combined PnL+$34.45

Up6 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,206

Combined PnL-$6.09

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$0.36	64% 95-53 (148)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$959.31	$964.16	+$4.85	98% 2252-45 (2297)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2370-1839 (4209)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99¢	$225.69	$226.83	+$1.14	49% 883-924 (1807)
pspspsps5	Downavg 99¢	$131.3	$131.3	+$0	33% 646-1294 (1940)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 59.9¢	$22.17	$36.82	+$14.64	47% 1321-1484 (2805)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 62.2¢	$18.03	$28.86	+$10.83	53% 634-559 (1193)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 99¢	$55.13	$24.89	+$1.46	53% 1367-1231 (2598)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 73¢	$21.9	$23.25	+$1.35	52% 4060-3799 (7859)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 93¢	$18.07	$18.36	+$0.29	60% 2389-1604 (3993)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 48.8¢	$16.27	$16.51	+$0.24	48% 1171-1273 (2444)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 67¢	$7.57	$7.06	-$0.51	54% 1563-1340 (2903)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 89¢	$4.6	$4.42	-$0.18	66% 2224-1129 (3353)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 73¢	$3.65	$3.88	+$0.23	62% 2576-1569 (4145)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 42¢	$1.16	$1.06	-$0.1	44% 1290-1624 (2914)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 1.4¢	$2.01	$0.71	-$1.3	39% 828-1318 (2146)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Upavg 17.5¢	$5.08	$0.15	-$4.93	51% 2130-2057 (4187)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Down

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$0.36

Record

64%

95-53 (148)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$959.31

Value

$964.16

PnL

+$4.85

Record

98%

2252-45 (2297)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$225.69

Value

$226.83

PnL

+$1.14

Record

49%

883-924 (1807)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$131.3

Value

$131.3

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

646-1294 (1940)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$22.17

Value

$36.82

PnL

+$14.64

Record

47%

1321-1484 (2805)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$18.03

Value

$28.86

PnL

+$10.83

Record

53%

634-559 (1193)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$55.13

Value

$24.89

PnL

+$1.46

Record

53%

1367-1231 (2598)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$21.9

Value

$23.25

PnL

+$1.35

Record

52%

4060-3799 (7859)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$18.07

Value

$18.36

PnL

+$0.29

Record

60%

2389-1604 (3993)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$16.27

Value

$16.51

PnL

+$0.24

Record

48%

1171-1273 (2444)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$7.57

Value

$7.06

PnL

-$0.51

Record

54%

1563-1340 (2903)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.42

PnL

-$0.18

Record

66%

2224-1129 (3353)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$3.65

Value

$3.88

PnL

+$0.23

Record

62%

2576-1569 (4145)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$1.16

Value

$1.06

PnL

-$0.1

Record

44%

1290-1624 (2914)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$2.01

Value

$0.71

PnL

-$1.3

Record

39%

828-1318 (2146)

soswald1CTR<$100

Invested

$5.08

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$4.93

Record

51%

2130-2057 (4187)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 18 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.