Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$475.03

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 20 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,242

Combined PnL+$5.42

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares835

Combined PnL-$480.46

Down — 55%Up — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$1.46	64% 95-53 (148)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$702.23	$1.4K	+$737.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$710.2	—	-$739.02
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2370-1839 (4209)
QU QuantumPebble673	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
SO soswald1CTR	Upavg 49.1¢	$451	—	-$388.05	51% 2130-2057 (4187)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 82.7¢	$88.14	$82.46	-$5.68	52% 4060-3799 (7859)
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Downavg 82.9¢	$66.76	$55.92	-$10.84	54% 1563-1340 (2903)
└ Down leg	Downavg 82.9¢	$46.36	$55.92	+$9.56
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.5¢	$20.4	—	-$20.4
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 81.2¢	$56.69	$51	-$5.69	53% 1367-1231 (2598)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 52¢	$13	$25	+$12	47% 1321-1484 (2805)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 47.5¢	$24.39	—	-$24.39	48% 1171-1273 (2444)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 83.4¢	$30.25	$23.69	+$2.11	62% 2576-1569 (4145)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 94¢	$16.68	$15	-$1.68	66% 2224-1129 (3353)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 82.6¢	$13.37	$16.19	+$2.82	33% 646-1294 (1940)
SU suntori<$100	Downavg 85.8¢	$14.94	$17.4	+$2.46	47% 1583-1774 (3357)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 89¢	$10.65	$9.09	-$1.56	52% 1724-1588 (3312)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Upavg 21.3¢	$8.53	—	-$8.53	47% 926-1058 (1984)
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$2.4	—	-$2.4	58% 4542-3345 (7887)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 25.4¢	$3.97	—	-$3.97	48% 1485-1609 (3094)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 64¢	$1.14	$1.78	+$0.64	60% 2389-1604 (3993)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 17.9¢	$33.22	—	-$33.22	51% 1347-1269 (2616)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 20.5¢	$12.3	—	-$12.3	48% 1288-1398 (2686)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 21¢	$6.3	—	-$6.3	46% 1269-1467 (2736)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 17¢	$1.3	—	-$1.3	63% 1554-926 (2480)