Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
24
Down 54%
2 arb excluded
$1.9K
$-1.2K
Smart Money Signal
13 of 24 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$3.65 | 64% 95-53 (148) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 70.5¢ | $222.29 | $168.45 | -$35.82 | 51% 1347-1269 (2616) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 72.1¢ | $97.37 | $94.74 | -$2.63 | 51% 1806-1756 (3562) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 72.1¢ | $68.33 | $94.74 | +$26.41 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28.7¢ | $29.04 | — | -$29.04 | |
BL blue.birdsARB<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $71.95 | $60 | -$11.95 | 52% 4060-3799 (7859) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 30.7¢ | $32.35 | — | -$32.35 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 66¢ | $39.6 | $60 | +$20.4 | |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 61.7¢ | $46.52 | $52.25 | +$5.73 | 54% 1563-1340 (2903) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 44.5¢ | $40.1 | — | -$40.1 | 50% 437-429 (866) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 57.4¢ | $39.04 | $38.38 | -$0.66 | 47% 926-1058 (1984) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $30.83 | $30 | +$3.72 | 53% 1367-1231 (2598) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $24.46 | $20.74 | -$1.48 | 51% 2130-2057 (4187) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $25.95 | — | -$25.95 | 47% 1321-1484 (2805) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Downavg 90.9¢ | $13.95 | $15.35 | +$1.4 | 47% 912-1024 (1936) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 84.9¢ | $14.85 | $17.5 | +$2.65 | 74% 1049-366 (1415) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $11.1 | $15 | +$3.9 | 44% 1290-1624 (2914) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 37.5¢ | $18.95 | — | -$18.95 | 46% 1269-1467 (2736) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 73.4¢ | $12.59 | $10.09 | -$2.5 | 66% 2224-1129 (3353) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $8.8 | $5 | -$2.9 | 62% 2576-1569 (4145) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $5.52 | $6 | +$0.48 | 60% 2389-1604 (3993) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 18.3¢ | $1.37 | — | -$1.37 | 52% 1724-1588 (3312) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 58¢ | $2.95 | $5.09 | +$2.14 | 39% 828-1318 (2146) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $2.62 | — | -$2.62 | 48% 2191-2368 (4559) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $2.5 | — | -$2.5 | 48% 1288-1398 (2686) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 41.3¢ | $46.72 | — | -$46.72 | 47% 1583-1774 (3357) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 27.7¢ | $3.26 | — | -$3.26 | 48% 1485-1609 (3094) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$3.65
Record
64%
95-53 (148)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$222.29
Value
$168.45
PnL
-$35.82
Record
51%
1347-1269 (2616)
Invested
$97.37
Value
$94.74
PnL
-$2.63
Record
51%
1806-1756 (3562)
Both legs:
Invested
$71.95
Value
$60
PnL
-$11.95
Record
52%
4060-3799 (7859)
Both legs:
Invested
$46.52
Value
$52.25
PnL
+$5.73
Record
54%
1563-1340 (2903)
Invested
$40.1
Value
—
PnL
-$40.1
Record
50%
437-429 (866)
Invested
$39.04
Value
$38.38
PnL
-$0.66
Record
47%
926-1058 (1984)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$30.83
Value
$30
PnL
+$3.72
Record
53%
1367-1231 (2598)
Invested
$24.46
Value
$20.74
PnL
-$1.48
Record
51%
2130-2057 (4187)
Invested
$25.95
Value
—
PnL
-$25.95
Record
47%
1321-1484 (2805)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$13.95
Value
$15.35
PnL
+$1.4
Record
47%
912-1024 (1936)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$14.85
Value
$17.5
PnL
+$2.65
Record
74%
1049-366 (1415)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$11.1
Value
$15
PnL
+$3.9
Record
44%
1290-1624 (2914)
Invested
$18.95
Value
—
PnL
-$18.95
Record
46%
1269-1467 (2736)
Invested
$12.59
Value
$10.09
PnL
-$2.5
Record
66%
2224-1129 (3353)
Invested
$8.8
Value
$5
PnL
-$2.9
Record
62%
2576-1569 (4145)
Invested
$5.52
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.48
Record
60%
2389-1604 (3993)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$1.37
Value
—
PnL
-$1.37
Record
52%
1724-1588 (3312)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$2.95
Value
$5.09
PnL
+$2.14
Record
39%
828-1318 (2146)
Invested
$2.62
Value
—
PnL
-$2.62
Record
48%
2191-2368 (4559)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$2.5
Value
—
PnL
-$2.5
Record
48%
1288-1398 (2686)
Invested
$46.72
Value
—
PnL
-$46.72
Record
47%
1583-1774 (3357)
Invested
$3.26
Value
—
PnL
-$3.26
Record
48%
1485-1609 (3094)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Down — $1.4K
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $168.45
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
blue.birds
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
Down — $52.25
PBot-6
CTRUp — $0
rabadabadoo
Down — $38.38
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $30