Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET
Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
20
Down 65%
1 arb excluded
$2.9K
-$693.62
Smart Money Signal
13 of 20 top traders (65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | -$7.51 | 64% 95-53 (148) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 22.9¢ | $218.35 | $731.85 | +$560.57 | 51% 1347-1269 (2616) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 56¢ | $172.93 | $163.73 | -$9.2 | 52% 4060-3799 (7859) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 48.3¢ | $112.92 | $148.83 | +$35.91 | 51% 1806-1756 (3562) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 35.6¢ | $53.04 | $148.83 | +$95.79 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.3¢ | $59.88 | — | -$59.88 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 64.6¢ | $75.81 | $117.32 | +$41.52 | 48% 1171-1273 (2444) |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 64.6¢ | $136.47 | $109.05 | -$27.42 | 54% 1563-1340 (2903) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $90 | — | -$90 | 53% 312-279 (591) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 56.1¢ | $94.93 | $89 | -$5.93 | 53% 1367-1231 (2598) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 58.3¢ | $50.52 | $51.28 | +$0.76 | 47% 926-1058 (1984) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 38.4¢ | $24.6 | $48.61 | +$24 | 51% 2130-2057 (4187) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 45.3¢ | $18.82 | $27 | +$8.18 | 44% 1290-1624 (2914) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 54.1¢ | $26.19 | $22.35 | +$1.19 | 62% 2576-1569 (4145) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 60.9¢ | $16.6 | $18.84 | +$2.24 | 66% 2224-1129 (3353) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 21¢ | $6.3 | — | -$6.3 | 47% 1321-1484 (2805) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 18¢ | $5.4 | $30 | +$24.6 | 48% 1288-1398 (2686) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 37.3¢ | $19.45 | — | -$11.89 | 46% 1269-1467 (2736) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 17.4¢ | $1.54 | $8.83 | +$7.29 | 39% 828-1318 (2146) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 14.7¢ | $6.92 | — | -$2.95 | 48% 1485-1609 (3094) |
SU suntoriCTR | Upavg 43.7¢ | $202.78 | — | -$202.78 | 47% 1583-1774 (3357) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$7.51
Record
64%
95-53 (148)
Invested
$218.35
Value
$731.85
PnL
+$560.57
Record
51%
1347-1269 (2616)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$172.93
Value
$163.73
PnL
-$9.2
Record
52%
4060-3799 (7859)
Invested
$112.92
Value
$148.83
PnL
+$35.91
Record
51%
1806-1756 (3562)
Both legs:
Invested
$75.81
Value
$117.32
PnL
+$41.52
Record
48%
1171-1273 (2444)
Invested
$136.47
Value
$109.05
PnL
-$27.42
Record
54%
1563-1340 (2903)
Invested
$90
Value
—
PnL
-$90
Record
53%
312-279 (591)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$94.93
Value
$89
PnL
-$5.93
Record
53%
1367-1231 (2598)
Invested
$50.52
Value
$51.28
PnL
+$0.76
Record
47%
926-1058 (1984)
Invested
$24.6
Value
$48.61
PnL
+$24
Record
51%
2130-2057 (4187)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$18.82
Value
$27
PnL
+$8.18
Record
44%
1290-1624 (2914)
Invested
$26.19
Value
$22.35
PnL
+$1.19
Record
62%
2576-1569 (4145)
Invested
$16.6
Value
$18.84
PnL
+$2.24
Record
66%
2224-1129 (3353)
Invested
$6.3
Value
—
PnL
-$6.3
Record
47%
1321-1484 (2805)
ohioism<$100Invested
$5.4
Value
$30
PnL
+$24.6
Record
48%
1288-1398 (2686)
Invested
$19.45
Value
—
PnL
-$11.89
Record
46%
1269-1467 (2736)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$1.54
Value
$8.83
PnL
+$7.29
Record
39%
828-1318 (2146)
Invested
$6.92
Value
—
PnL
-$2.95
Record
48%
1485-1609 (3094)
Invested
$202.78
Value
—
PnL
-$202.78
Record
47%
1583-1774 (3357)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Down — $1.3K
uninformedfloww
Down — $731.85
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
Down — $163.73
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $117.32
ply-pm2
Down — $109.05
devonpoll
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $89