Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Up β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
π
Won
20
Up 55%
3 arb excluded
$2.8K
-$70.58
Smart Money Signal
11 of 20 top traders (55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Upavg 50Β’ | $1.5K | $1.4K | +$5.54 | 64% 95-53 (148) |
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100 | Downavg 50Β’ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | β |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50Β’ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50Β’ | $250 | β | -$250 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50Β’ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50Β’ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50Β’ | $250 | β | -$250 | |
DE devonpollARB<$100 | Downavg 50Β’ | $90 | $90 | +$0 | 53% 312-279 (591) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50Β’ | $45 | $90 | +$45 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50Β’ | $45 | β | -$45 | |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Upavg 99Β’ | $52.87 | $53.4 | +$0.53 | 58% 4542-3345 (7887) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 70.2Β’ | $44.26 | $50.21 | +$5.95 | 52% 4060-3799 (7859) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 73.3Β’ | $40.45 | $47.58 | +$8.07 | 60% 2389-1604 (3993) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 77Β’ | $50.82 | $39 | -$11.82 | 51% 1806-1756 (3562) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 62Β’ | $42.9 | $45 | +$2.1 | 54% 1563-1340 (2903) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Downavg 47Β’ | $23.5 | β | -$23.5 | 48% 748-800 (1548) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 95.1Β’ | $16.89 | $14.55 | -$2.28 | 66% 2224-1129 (3353) |
SU suntori<$100 | Upavg 82.6Β’ | $11.2 | $13.56 | +$2.36 | 47% 1583-1774 (3357) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 25.2Β’ | $13.1 | β | -$13.1 | 46% 1269-1467 (2736) |
![]() Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 17.8Β’ | $95.73 | β | +$6.49 | 53% 1367-1231 (2598) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 88Β’ | $6.23 | $7.08 | +$0.85 | 62% 2576-1569 (4145) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 80Β’ | $5.89 | $5.3 | -$0.59 | 47% 926-1058 (1984) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 29.8Β’ | $15.31 | β | -$11.86 | 47% 1321-1484 (2805) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 67Β’ | $3.35 | $5 | +$1.65 | 51% 2130-2057 (4187) |
![]() MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 18.1Β’ | $1.85 | β | -$1.85 | 52% 1724-1588 (3312) |
![]() OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 5Β’ | $0.87 | β | -$0.87 | 39% 828-1318 (2146) |
![]() pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 3Β’ | $0.15 | β | -$0.15 | 33% 646-1294 (1940) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 24Β’ | $30 | β | -$30 | 51% 1347-1269 (2616) |
![]() ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 23.1Β’ | $8.1 | β | -$8.1 | 48% 1288-1398 (2686) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$5.54
Record
64%
95-53 (148)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
β
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Both legs:
Invested
$90
Value
$90
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
312-279 (591)
Both legs:
Invested
$52.87
Value
$53.4
PnL
+$0.53
Record
58%
4542-3345 (7887)
Invested
$44.26
Value
$50.21
PnL
+$5.95
Record
52%
4060-3799 (7859)
Invested
$40.45
Value
$47.58
PnL
+$8.07
Record
60%
2389-1604 (3993)
Invested
$50.82
Value
$39
PnL
-$11.82
Record
51%
1806-1756 (3562)
Invested
$42.9
Value
$45
PnL
+$2.1
Record
54%
1563-1340 (2903)
Invested
$23.5
Value
β
PnL
-$23.5
Record
48%
748-800 (1548)
Invested
$16.89
Value
$14.55
PnL
-$2.28
Record
66%
2224-1129 (3353)
Invested
$11.2
Value
$13.56
PnL
+$2.36
Record
47%
1583-1774 (3357)
Invested
$13.1
Value
β
PnL
-$13.1
Record
46%
1269-1467 (2736)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$95.73
Value
β
PnL
+$6.49
Record
53%
1367-1231 (2598)
Invested
$6.23
Value
$7.08
PnL
+$0.85
Record
62%
2576-1569 (4145)
Invested
$5.89
Value
$5.3
PnL
-$0.59
Record
47%
926-1058 (1984)
Invested
$15.31
Value
β
PnL
-$11.86
Record
47%
1321-1484 (2805)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.65
Record
51%
2130-2057 (4187)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$1.85
Value
β
PnL
-$1.85
Record
52%
1724-1588 (3312)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$0.87
Value
β
PnL
-$0.87
Record
39%
828-1318 (2146)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.15
Value
β
PnL
-$0.15
Record
33%
646-1294 (1940)
Invested
$30
Value
β
PnL
-$30
Record
51%
1347-1269 (2616)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$8.1
Value
β
PnL
-$8.1
Record
48%
1288-1398 (2686)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Up β $1.4K
QuantumPebble673
ARBArbitrage β excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage β excluded
devonpoll
ARBArbitrage β excluded
Hcrystallash
Up β $53.4
blue.birds
Up β $50.21
aaa221
Up β $47.58
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up β $39
ply-pm2
Up β $45
PBot-5
CTRDown β $0