Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET

Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 63%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$792.88

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 24 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,585

Combined PnL+$368.2

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,726

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Down — 63%Up — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	+$3.09	63% 78-45 (123)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$684.72	$1.4K	+$704.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$684.92	—	-$701.61
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 73¢	$737.99	$958.56	+$239.31	52% 1296-1214 (2510)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	56% 2370-1839 (4209)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 67.7¢	$243.14	$276.41	+$33.27	51% 1741-1694 (3435)
PB PBot-5	Downavg 47.4¢	$63.52	$134.13	+$70.61	49% 727-769 (1496)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 51.8¢	$145.88	$100	-$45.88	48% 1139-1229 (2368)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69¢	$69	$100	+$31
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.8¢	$76.88	—	-$76.88
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Downavg 58.5¢	$45.4	$47.68	+$2.28	54% 1521-1314 (2835)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.5¢	$27.88	$47.68	+$19.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.8¢	$17.52	—	-$17.52
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 75.3¢	$47.64	$35	-$12.64	52% 4022-3759 (7781)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 54¢	$16.2	$30	+$13.8	46% 1227-1428 (2655)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 58.1¢	$24.44	$42.03	+$17.59	44% 1249-1571 (2820)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Upavg 24.8¢	$44.97	—	-$31.77	51% 2068-2013 (4081)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$20.79	$21	+$0.21	98% 2209-44 (2253)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 77¢	$130.5	$20	-$2.41	53% 1336-1195 (2531)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 81.8¢	$15.64	$15.83	+$0.19	63% 1521-902 (2423)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 67¢	$9.84	$10.75	+$0.91	67% 2180-1089 (3269)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Downavg 66.4¢	$10.75	$10.15	-$0.59	47% 908-1031 (1939)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5	$10	+$5	58% 4516-3334 (7850)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 96.7¢	$33.29	$10	-$0.29	62% 2512-1527 (4039)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 29.1¢	$16.79	—	-$16.79	60% 2327-1560 (3887)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 64.4¢	$3.95	$6.14	+$2.19	48% 1442-1566 (3008)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 79¢	$3.95	$5	+$1.05	52% 1676-1557 (3233)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 3.9¢	$1.52	—	-$1.52	33% 629-1260 (1889)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 22.3¢	$44.6	—	-$44.6	38% 633-1050 (1683)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$3.59	—	-$3.59	39% 807-1277 (2084)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$3.09

Record

63%

78-45 (123)

Both legs:

Down$684.7250¢+$704.7

Up$684.9250¢-$701.61

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$737.99

Value

$958.56

PnL

+$239.31

Record

52%

1296-1214 (2510)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$243.14

Value

$276.41

PnL

+$33.27

Record

51%

1741-1694 (3435)

PBot-5

Down

Invested

$63.52

Value

$134.13

PnL

+$70.61

Record

49%

727-769 (1496)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$145.88

Value

$100

PnL

-$45.88

Record

48%

1139-1229 (2368)

Both legs:

Invested

$45.4

Value

$47.68

PnL

+$2.28

Record

54%

1521-1314 (2835)

Both legs:

Down$27.8858.5¢+$19.8

Up$17.5223.8¢-$17.52

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$47.64

Value

$35

PnL

-$12.64

Record

52%

4022-3759 (7781)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$16.2

Value

$30

PnL

+$13.8

Record

46%

1227-1428 (2655)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$24.44

Value

$42.03

PnL

+$17.59

Record

44%

1249-1571 (2820)

soswald1CTR<$100

Invested

$44.97

Value

—

PnL

-$31.77

Record

51%

2068-2013 (4081)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$20.79

Value

$21

PnL

+$0.21

Record

98%

2209-44 (2253)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$130.5

Value

$20

PnL

-$2.41

Record

53%

1336-1195 (2531)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$15.64

Value

$15.83

PnL

+$0.19

Record

63%

1521-902 (2423)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$9.84

Value

$10.75

PnL

+$0.91

Record

67%

2180-1089 (3269)

rabadabadoo<$100

Down

Invested

$10.75

Value

$10.15

PnL

-$0.59

Record

47%

908-1031 (1939)

Hcrystallash<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$10

PnL

+$5

Record

58%

4516-3334 (7850)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$33.29

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.29

Record

62%

2512-1527 (4039)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$16.79

Value

—

PnL

-$16.79

Record

60%

2327-1560 (3887)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$3.95

Value

$6.14

PnL

+$2.19

Record

48%

1442-1566 (3008)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$3.95

Value

PnL

+$1.05

Record

52%

1676-1557 (3233)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$1.52

Value

—

PnL

-$1.52

Record

33%

629-1260 (1889)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$44.6

Value

—

PnL

-$44.6

Record

38%

633-1050 (1683)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$3.59

Value

—

PnL

-$3.59

Record

39%

807-1277 (2084)

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 24 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x90209901...21248d

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794493200

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$3.09

uninformedfloww

Down — $958.56

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

QuantumPebble673

Up — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $276.41

+$33.27

PBot-5

Down — $134.13

+$70.61

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm2

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Down — $35

-$12.64

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $30

+$13.8

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