Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 36% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
22
Up 36%
$1.3K
$-2.3K
Smart Money Signal
8 of 22 top traders (36%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 63% 78-45 (123) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $450 | $435 | +$4.58 | 51% 2068-2013 (4081) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 67.6¢ | $283.72 | $419.51 | +$135.79 | 52% 1296-1214 (2510) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $114.71 | $115.87 | +$1.16 | 98% 2209-44 (2253) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 66.6¢ | $102.68 | $110 | +$7.32 | 51% 1741-1694 (3435) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 86.3¢ | $138.75 | $43.99 | -$17.63 | 53% 1336-1195 (2531) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $36.52 | $30 | -$6.52 | 48% 1250-1346 (2596) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 56.5¢ | $21.23 | $24 | +$2.77 | 54% 1521-1314 (2835) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $18.6 | $20 | +$1.4 | 46% 1227-1428 (2655) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 59.3¢ | $7.35 | $12.4 | +$5.05 | 47% 908-1031 (1939) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $13.08 | $18.96 | +$5.88 | 60% 2327-1560 (3887) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 95.6¢ | $23 | $12.12 | +$0.26 | 62% 2512-1527 (4039) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 88.2¢ | $11.54 | $11.16 | -$0.38 | 67% 2180-1089 (3269) |
SU suntori<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $7.47 | $8.3 | +$0.83 | 47% 1547-1731 (3278) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $4.61 | $5.01 | +$0.4 | 52% 1676-1557 (3233) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 4.4¢ | $2.73 | — | -$2.73 | 33% 629-1260 (1889) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $2.76 | — | -$2.76 | 48% 1139-1229 (2368) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 17.1¢ | $3.24 | — | -$3.24 | 52% 4022-3759 (7781) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $4.22 | — | -$4.22 | 49% 860-907 (1767) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 14.7¢ | $5.92 | — | -$5.92 | 39% 807-1277 (2084) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
63%
78-45 (123)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$450
Value
$435
PnL
+$4.58
Record
51%
2068-2013 (4081)
Invested
$283.72
Value
$419.51
PnL
+$135.79
Record
52%
1296-1214 (2510)
Invested
$114.71
Value
$115.87
PnL
+$1.16
Record
98%
2209-44 (2253)
Invested
$102.68
Value
$110
PnL
+$7.32
Record
51%
1741-1694 (3435)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$138.75
Value
$43.99
PnL
-$17.63
Record
53%
1336-1195 (2531)
ohioism<$100Invested
$36.52
Value
$30
PnL
-$6.52
Record
48%
1250-1346 (2596)
Invested
$21.23
Value
$24
PnL
+$2.77
Record
54%
1521-1314 (2835)
Invested
$18.6
Value
$20
PnL
+$1.4
Record
46%
1227-1428 (2655)
Invested
$7.35
Value
$12.4
PnL
+$5.05
Record
47%
908-1031 (1939)
Invested
$13.08
Value
$18.96
PnL
+$5.88
Record
60%
2327-1560 (3887)
Invested
$23
Value
$12.12
PnL
+$0.26
Record
62%
2512-1527 (4039)
Invested
$11.54
Value
$11.16
PnL
-$0.38
Record
67%
2180-1089 (3269)
Invested
$7.47
Value
$8.3
PnL
+$0.83
Record
47%
1547-1731 (3278)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$4.61
Value
$5.01
PnL
+$0.4
Record
52%
1676-1557 (3233)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$2.73
Value
—
PnL
-$2.73
Record
33%
629-1260 (1889)
Invested
$2.76
Value
—
PnL
-$2.76
Record
48%
1139-1229 (2368)
Invested
$3.24
Value
—
PnL
-$3.24
Record
52%
4022-3759 (7781)
Invested
$4.22
Value
—
PnL
-$4.22
Record
49%
860-907 (1767)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$5.92
Value
—
PnL
-$5.92
Record
39%
807-1277 (2084)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
Down — $435
uninformedfloww
Down — $419.51
hoodquant
Down — $115.87
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $110
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $43.99
ohioism
Down — $30
ply-pm2
Down — $24