Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
30
Down 80%
1 arb excluded
$2.3K
-$961.54
Smart Money Signal
24 of 30 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$0.07 | 63% 78-45 (123) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.6¢ | $177.68 | $180.25 | +$2.57 | 98% 2209-44 (2253) |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 84.9¢ | $96.92 | $60.67 | -$36.25 | 52% 1296-1214 (2510) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 8.1¢ | $45.4 | — | -$45.39 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 84.9¢ | $51.53 | $60.67 | +$9.14 | |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 74.6¢ | $64.12 | $86 | +$21.88 | 48% 1250-1346 (2596) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 63.5¢ | $31.79 | $45.13 | +$13.34 | 33% 629-1260 (1889) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 91.9¢ | $53.26 | $55.2 | +$3.15 | 51% 1741-1694 (3435) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 89.6¢ | $39.13 | $42.54 | +$4.16 | 67% 2180-1089 (3269) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 87.5¢ | $31.43 | $33.33 | +$2.23 | 48% 1442-1566 (3008) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $38.49 | $30 | -$8.49 | 54% 1521-1314 (2835) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $22.05 | $30.61 | +$8.56 | 46% 1227-1428 (2655) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 99.3¢ | $38.19 | $25 | -$13.19 | 53% 1336-1195 (2531) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 81.3¢ | $19.24 | $18.38 | -$0.86 | 52% 4022-3759 (7781) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $13.85 | $15.81 | +$1.96 | 51% 2068-2013 (4081) |
SU suntori<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $14.94 | $16.07 | +$1.13 | 47% 1547-1731 (3278) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 90.4¢ | $14.92 | $15.21 | +$1.1 | 63% 1521-902 (2423) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $14.8 | $20 | +$5.2 | 58% 4516-3334 (7850) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 89.1¢ | $15.87 | $17.81 | +$1.94 | 60% 2327-1560 (3887) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 72.9¢ | $9.83 | $13.41 | +$3.58 | 38% 841-1390 (2231) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $11.46 | — | -$11.46 | 48% 1139-1229 (2368) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 82.9¢ | $8.67 | $10 | +$1.33 | 52% 1676-1557 (3233) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $8.98 | $8.99 | +$0.01 | 49% 860-907 (1767) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $7.2 | $15 | +$7.8 | 49% 727-769 (1496) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Downavg 47.3¢ | $6.28 | $13.28 | +$7 | 48% 2153-2339 (4492) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$0.07
Record
63%
78-45 (123)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$177.68
Value
$180.25
PnL
+$2.57
Record
98%
2209-44 (2253)
Invested
$96.92
Value
$60.67
PnL
-$36.25
Record
52%
1296-1214 (2510)
Both legs:
ohioism<$100Invested
$64.12
Value
$86
PnL
+$21.88
Record
48%
1250-1346 (2596)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$31.79
Value
$45.13
PnL
+$13.34
Record
33%
629-1260 (1889)
Invested
$53.26
Value
$55.2
PnL
+$3.15
Record
51%
1741-1694 (3435)
Invested
$39.13
Value
$42.54
PnL
+$4.16
Record
67%
2180-1089 (3269)
Invested
$31.43
Value
$33.33
PnL
+$2.23
Record
48%
1442-1566 (3008)
Invested
$38.49
Value
$30
PnL
-$8.49
Record
54%
1521-1314 (2835)
Invested
$22.05
Value
$30.61
PnL
+$8.56
Record
46%
1227-1428 (2655)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$38.19
Value
$25
PnL
-$13.19
Record
53%
1336-1195 (2531)
Invested
$19.24
Value
$18.38
PnL
-$0.86
Record
52%
4022-3759 (7781)
Invested
$13.85
Value
$15.81
PnL
+$1.96
Record
51%
2068-2013 (4081)
Invested
$14.94
Value
$16.07
PnL
+$1.13
Record
47%
1547-1731 (3278)
Invested
$14.92
Value
$15.21
PnL
+$1.1
Record
63%
1521-902 (2423)
Invested
$14.8
Value
$20
PnL
+$5.2
Record
58%
4516-3334 (7850)
Invested
$15.87
Value
$17.81
PnL
+$1.94
Record
60%
2327-1560 (3887)
Invested
$9.83
Value
$13.41
PnL
+$3.58
Record
38%
841-1390 (2231)
Invested
$11.46
Value
—
PnL
-$11.46
Record
48%
1139-1229 (2368)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$8.67
Value
$10
PnL
+$1.33
Record
52%
1676-1557 (3233)
Invested
$8.98
Value
$8.99
PnL
+$0.01
Record
49%
860-907 (1767)
Invested
$7.2
Value
$15
PnL
+$7.8
Record
49%
727-769 (1496)
Invested
$6.28
Value
$13.28
PnL
+$7
Record
48%
2153-2339 (4492)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Down — $1.5K
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $180.25
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ohioism
Down — $86
pspspsps5
Down — $45.13
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $55.2
asdaefef
Down — $42.54
dvasdkasodk
Down — $33.33