Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
22
Up 52%
6 arb excluded
$2.3K
$-1.6K
Smart Money Signal
12 of 22 top traders (55%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.2K | +$17.66 | 63% 78-45 (123) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $592.08 | $1.2K | +$600.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $592.52 | — | -$582.54 | |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 54.7¢ | $538.68 | — | -$525.48 | 52% 1296-1214 (2510) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 55.6¢ | $209.97 | $191.72 | -$18.25 | 52% 4022-3759 (7781) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 55.9¢ | $144.33 | $134.86 | -$9.47 | 54% 1521-1314 (2835) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.3¢ | $52.95 | $134.86 | +$81.91 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.9¢ | $91.38 | — | -$91.38 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $138.6 | $140 | +$1.4 | 98% 2209-44 (2253) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 44.7¢ | $189.79 | $119 | +$44.47 | 53% 1336-1195 (2531) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44.7¢ | $53.18 | $119 | +$77.9 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.5¢ | $48.99 | — | -$33.43 | |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 65.4¢ | $116.5 | $105 | -$11.5 | 51% 2068-2013 (4081) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 65.4¢ | $68.62 | $105 | +$36.37 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.9¢ | $47.88 | — | -$47.88 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 43.6¢ | $78.46 | $98.26 | +$19.8 | 51% 1741-1694 (3435) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43.6¢ | $47.8 | — | -$47.8 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 31.2¢ | $30.66 | $98.26 | +$67.6 | |
RA rabadabadooARB<$100 | Upavg 52.5¢ | $99.58 | $92.66 | -$6.92 | 47% 908-1031 (1939) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.3¢ | $42 | $92.66 | +$50.66 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.5¢ | $57.58 | — | -$57.58 | |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 42.6¢ | $59.04 | — | -$59.04 | 46% 1227-1428 (2655) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 71.3¢ | $57.08 | $80.08 | +$23 | 60% 2327-1560 (3887) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $51.66 | $46.71 | -$4.95 | 48% 1139-1229 (2368) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 30.5¢ | $9.99 | $32.76 | +$22.77 | 38% 841-1390 (2231) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 46.9¢ | $23.45 | $50 | +$26.55 | 53% 620-540 (1160) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 26¢ | $15.05 | — | -$15.05 | 47% 1280-1435 (2715) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 37.5¢ | $53.81 | $20.95 | -$16.05 | 62% 2512-1527 (4039) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 59.2¢ | $15.74 | $15.09 | -$0.65 | 63% 1521-902 (2423) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 4.8¢ | $25.23 | — | -$25.23 | 44% 1249-1571 (2820) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 70.1¢ | $37.75 | — | -$32.64 | 67% 2180-1089 (3269) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $4.77 | $10.37 | +$5.6 | 51% 422-410 (832) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $3.75 | $5 | +$1.25 | 52% 1676-1557 (3233) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 34¢ | $3.31 | — | -$0.01 | 39% 807-1277 (2084) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 54.5¢ | $23.64 | — | -$23.64 | 48% 1250-1346 (2596) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$17.66
Record
63%
78-45 (123)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$538.68
Value
—
PnL
-$525.48
Record
52%
1296-1214 (2510)
Invested
$209.97
Value
$191.72
PnL
-$18.25
Record
52%
4022-3759 (7781)
Invested
$144.33
Value
$134.86
PnL
-$9.47
Record
54%
1521-1314 (2835)
Both legs:
Invested
$138.6
Value
$140
PnL
+$1.4
Record
98%
2209-44 (2253)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$189.79
Value
$119
PnL
+$44.47
Record
53%
1336-1195 (2531)
Both legs:
Invested
$116.5
Value
$105
PnL
-$11.5
Record
51%
2068-2013 (4081)
Both legs:
Invested
$78.46
Value
$98.26
PnL
+$19.8
Record
51%
1741-1694 (3435)
Both legs:
Invested
$99.58
Value
$92.66
PnL
-$6.92
Record
47%
908-1031 (1939)
Both legs:
Invested
$59.04
Value
—
PnL
-$59.04
Record
46%
1227-1428 (2655)
Invested
$57.08
Value
$80.08
PnL
+$23
Record
60%
2327-1560 (3887)
Invested
$51.66
Value
$46.71
PnL
-$4.95
Record
48%
1139-1229 (2368)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$32.76
PnL
+$22.77
Record
38%
841-1390 (2231)
Invested
$23.45
Value
$50
PnL
+$26.55
Record
53%
620-540 (1160)
Invested
$15.05
Value
—
PnL
-$15.05
Record
47%
1280-1435 (2715)
Invested
$53.81
Value
$20.95
PnL
-$16.05
Record
62%
2512-1527 (4039)
Invested
$15.74
Value
$15.09
PnL
-$0.65
Record
63%
1521-902 (2423)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$25.23
Value
—
PnL
-$25.23
Record
44%
1249-1571 (2820)
Invested
$37.75
Value
—
PnL
-$32.64
Record
67%
2180-1089 (3269)
Invested
$4.77
Value
$10.37
PnL
+$5.6
Record
51%
422-410 (832)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$3.75
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.25
Record
52%
1676-1557 (3233)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$3.31
Value
—
PnL
-$0.01
Record
39%
807-1277 (2084)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$23.64
Value
—
PnL
-$23.64
Record
48%
1250-1346 (2596)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
Down — $191.72
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $140
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded