Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 47% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
17
Down 47%
$1.4K
$-1.6K
Smart Money Signal
8 of 17 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 63% 78-45 (123) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
HC Hcrystallash | Upavg 99¢ | $120.51 | $121.73 | +$1.22 | 58% 4516-3334 (7850) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 48.5¢ | $56.74 | $117 | +$60.26 | 48% 1139-1229 (2368) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 71.2¢ | $48.2 | $60 | +$11.8 | 51% 2068-2013 (4081) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 38.2¢ | $87.76 | — | -$20.21 | 53% 1336-1195 (2531) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 70.3¢ | $35.32 | $27.87 | -$7.45 | 47% 908-1031 (1939) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 95.2¢ | $29.1 | $28.06 | -$1.04 | 67% 2180-1089 (3269) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Downavg 30¢ | $33.79 | — | -$33.79 | 52% 4022-3759 (7781) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 73¢ | $10.95 | $15 | +$4.05 | 54% 1521-1314 (2835) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 73¢ | $2.7 | $3.7 | +$1 | 60% 2327-1560 (3887) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 24.7¢ | $1.18 | — | -$1.18 | 52% 1676-1557 (3233) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 17¢ | $1.15 | — | -$1.15 | 48% 1442-1566 (3008) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Downavg 27.8¢ | $65.42 | — | -$65.42 | 47% 1547-1731 (3278) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Downavg 51.4¢ | $88.49 | — | -$88.49 | 49% 727-769 (1496) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 51.8¢ | $12.61 | — | -$10.97 | 62% 2512-1527 (4039) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
63%
78-45 (123)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$120.51
Value
$121.73
PnL
+$1.22
Record
58%
4516-3334 (7850)
Invested
$56.74
Value
$117
PnL
+$60.26
Record
48%
1139-1229 (2368)
Invested
$48.2
Value
$60
PnL
+$11.8
Record
51%
2068-2013 (4081)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$87.76
Value
—
PnL
-$20.21
Record
53%
1336-1195 (2531)
Invested
$35.32
Value
$27.87
PnL
-$7.45
Record
47%
908-1031 (1939)
Invested
$29.1
Value
$28.06
PnL
-$1.04
Record
67%
2180-1089 (3269)
Invested
$33.79
Value
—
PnL
-$33.79
Record
52%
4022-3759 (7781)
Invested
$10.95
Value
$15
PnL
+$4.05
Record
54%
1521-1314 (2835)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$3.7
PnL
+$1
Record
60%
2327-1560 (3887)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$1.18
Value
—
PnL
-$1.18
Record
52%
1676-1557 (3233)
Invested
$1.15
Value
—
PnL
-$1.15
Record
48%
1442-1566 (3008)
Invested
$65.42
Value
—
PnL
-$65.42
Record
47%
1547-1731 (3278)
Invested
$88.49
Value
—
PnL
-$88.49
Record
49%
727-769 (1496)
Invested
$12.61
Value
—
PnL
-$10.97
Record
62%
2512-1527 (4039)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
Up — $500
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
Hcrystallash
Up — $121.73
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $117
soswald1
Up — $60
Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown — $0
rabadabadoo
Up — $27.87
asdaefef
Up — $28.06
blue.birds
CTRDown — $0