Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
20
Up 50%
$319.13
$-2.5K
Smart Money Signal
10 of 20 top traders (50%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | 63% 78-45 (123) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $84.15 | $85 | +$0.85 | 98% 2209-44 (2253) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 96.8¢ | $88.68 | $52.05 | -$16.08 | 53% 1336-1195 (2531) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 80.8¢ | $40.4 | $50 | +$9.6 | 51% 2068-2013 (4081) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $30.64 | $35 | +$4.36 | 52% 1296-1214 (2510) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 90.6¢ | $30.2 | $33.33 | +$3.13 | 60% 2327-1560 (3887) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $27.57 | $29.18 | +$1.61 | 39% 807-1277 (2084) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $25 | — | -$25 | 49% 727-769 (1496) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 80.7¢ | $13.53 | $16.77 | +$3.24 | 54% 1521-1314 (2835) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $7.49 | $7.8 | +$0.31 | 33% 629-1260 (1889) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $4.85 | $5 | +$0.15 | 62% 2512-1527 (4039) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $4.85 | $5 | +$0.15 | 67% 2180-1089 (3269) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $4.67 | — | -$4.67 | 51% 422-410 (832) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 1.9¢ | $11.09 | — | -$11.09 | 49% 860-907 (1767) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $0.96 | — | -$0.96 | 52% 4022-3759 (7781) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $0.82 | — | -$0.82 | 48% 1139-1229 (2368) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 2.6¢ | $0.44 | — | -$0.44 | 52% 1676-1557 (3233) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 13.1¢ | $28.97 | — | -$28.97 | 47% 1547-1731 (3278) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
63%
78-45 (123)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$84.15
Value
$85
PnL
+$0.85
Record
98%
2209-44 (2253)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$88.68
Value
$52.05
PnL
-$16.08
Record
53%
1336-1195 (2531)
Invested
$40.4
Value
$50
PnL
+$9.6
Record
51%
2068-2013 (4081)
Invested
$30.64
Value
$35
PnL
+$4.36
Record
52%
1296-1214 (2510)
Invested
$30.2
Value
$33.33
PnL
+$3.13
Record
60%
2327-1560 (3887)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$27.57
Value
$29.18
PnL
+$1.61
Record
39%
807-1277 (2084)
Invested
$25
Value
—
PnL
-$25
Record
49%
727-769 (1496)
Invested
$13.53
Value
$16.77
PnL
+$3.24
Record
54%
1521-1314 (2835)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$7.49
Value
$7.8
PnL
+$0.31
Record
33%
629-1260 (1889)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.15
Record
62%
2512-1527 (4039)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.15
Record
67%
2180-1089 (3269)
Invested
$4.67
Value
—
PnL
-$4.67
Record
51%
422-410 (832)
Invested
$11.09
Value
—
PnL
-$11.09
Record
49%
860-907 (1767)
Invested
$0.96
Value
—
PnL
-$0.96
Record
52%
4022-3759 (7781)
Invested
$0.82
Value
—
PnL
-$0.82
Record
48%
1139-1229 (2368)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.44
Value
—
PnL
-$0.44
Record
52%
1676-1557 (3233)
Invested
$28.97
Value
—
PnL
-$28.97
Record
47%
1547-1731 (3278)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $85
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $52.05
soswald1
Down — $50
uninformedfloww
Down — $35
aaa221
Down — $33.33
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $29.18
PBot-5
CTRUp — $0