Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 48% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
23
Down 48%
2 arb excluded
$1.8K
$-1.5K
Smart Money Signal
11 of 23 top traders (48%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.3K | 63% 78-45 (123) |
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.6¢ | $398.16 | $403.83 | +$5.67 | 98% 2209-44 (2253) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 60¢ | $135.52 | $111 | +$2.33 | 52% 1296-1214 (2510) |
HC Hcrystallash | Upavg 99¢ | $117.25 | $86.68 | -$30.57 | 58% 4516-3334 (7850) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 81.2¢ | $39.27 | $48.34 | +$9.07 | 60% 2327-1560 (3887) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 61.3¢ | $41.56 | $44.17 | +$2.61 | 54% 1521-1314 (2835) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 71.3¢ | $28.5 | $40 | +$11.5 | 51% 2068-2013 (4081) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 67¢ | $75.32 | $37.5 | +$8.79 | 53% 1336-1195 (2531) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $21.3 | — | -$21.3 | 48% 1250-1346 (2596) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Downavg 29.2¢ | $31.81 | — | -$31.81 | 52% 4022-3759 (7781) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $17.9 | — | -$17.9 | 47% 1280-1435 (2715) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Downavg 35.7¢ | $14.09 | — | -$14.09 | 47% 908-1031 (1939) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 48.2¢ | $10.89 | — | -$10.89 | 51% 422-410 (832) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $10.5 | $21 | +$10.5 | 48% 1139-1229 (2368) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 86¢ | $6.05 | $5 | -$1.05 | 52% 1676-1557 (3233) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $4.9 | $5 | +$0.1 | 63% 1521-902 (2423) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 86¢ | $4.4 | $5.11 | +$0.71 | 67% 2180-1089 (3269) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 59¢ | $2.95 | $5 | +$2.05 | 62% 2512-1527 (4039) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 9¢ | $1.35 | — | -$1.35 | 39% 807-1277 (2084) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 10.2¢ | $2.91 | — | -$2.91 | 33% 629-1260 (1889) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 45.9¢ | $9.44 | — | -$9.44 | 46% 1227-1428 (2655) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Downavg 23.5¢ | $46.72 | — | -$46.72 | 47% 1547-1731 (3278) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 8.8¢ | $2.63 | — | -$2.63 | 44% 1249-1571 (2820) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
63%
78-45 (123)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Both legs:
Invested
$398.16
Value
$403.83
PnL
+$5.67
Record
98%
2209-44 (2253)
Invested
$135.52
Value
$111
PnL
+$2.33
Record
52%
1296-1214 (2510)
Invested
$117.25
Value
$86.68
PnL
-$30.57
Record
58%
4516-3334 (7850)
Invested
$39.27
Value
$48.34
PnL
+$9.07
Record
60%
2327-1560 (3887)
Invested
$41.56
Value
$44.17
PnL
+$2.61
Record
54%
1521-1314 (2835)
Invested
$28.5
Value
$40
PnL
+$11.5
Record
51%
2068-2013 (4081)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$75.32
Value
$37.5
PnL
+$8.79
Record
53%
1336-1195 (2531)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$21.3
Value
—
PnL
-$21.3
Record
48%
1250-1346 (2596)
Invested
$31.81
Value
—
PnL
-$31.81
Record
52%
4022-3759 (7781)
Invested
$17.9
Value
—
PnL
-$17.9
Record
47%
1280-1435 (2715)
Invested
$14.09
Value
—
PnL
-$14.09
Record
47%
908-1031 (1939)
Invested
$10.89
Value
—
PnL
-$10.89
Record
51%
422-410 (832)
Invested
$10.5
Value
$21
PnL
+$10.5
Record
48%
1139-1229 (2368)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$6.05
Value
$5
PnL
-$1.05
Record
52%
1676-1557 (3233)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
63%
1521-902 (2423)
Invested
$4.4
Value
$5.11
PnL
+$0.71
Record
67%
2180-1089 (3269)
Invested
$2.95
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.05
Record
62%
2512-1527 (4039)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.35
Value
—
PnL
-$1.35
Record
39%
807-1277 (2084)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$2.91
Value
—
PnL
-$2.91
Record
33%
629-1260 (1889)
Invested
$9.44
Value
—
PnL
-$9.44
Record
46%
1227-1428 (2655)
Invested
$46.72
Value
—
PnL
-$46.72
Record
47%
1547-1731 (3278)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$2.63
Value
—
PnL
-$2.63
Record
44%
1249-1571 (2820)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
QuantumPebble673
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $403.83
uninformedfloww
Up — $111
Hcrystallash
Up — $86.68
aaa221
Up — $48.34
ply-pm2
Up — $44.17
soswald1
Up — $40
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $37.5