Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET
Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
23
Up 57%
$461.25
$-2.6K
Smart Money Signal
13 of 23 top traders (57%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 63% 78-45 (123) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 93.4¢ | $132.08 | $141.45 | +$9.37 | 48% 1139-1229 (2368) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $90 | — | -$90 | 53% 304-271 (575) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 84.8¢ | $112.88 | $70 | -$42.13 | 52% 1296-1214 (2510) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 86.6¢ | $80.95 | $72 | -$8.95 | 52% 4022-3759 (7781) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $45.59 | $46.05 | +$0.46 | 98% 2209-44 (2253) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $53.94 | — | -$48.94 | 53% 1336-1195 (2531) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $53.34 | $40 | -$13.34 | 51% 2068-2013 (4081) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 93.2¢ | $24.37 | $22.39 | -$1.95 | 67% 2180-1089 (3269) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 87.9¢ | $26.2 | $22.99 | -$3.21 | 54% 1521-1314 (2835) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $17.2 | $20 | +$2.8 | 60% 2327-1560 (3887) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $10.35 | $15 | +$4.65 | 74% 1022-354 (1376) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 84.5¢ | $13.84 | $11.37 | +$2.96 | 62% 2512-1527 (4039) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 9.7¢ | $2.9 | — | -$2.9 | 33% 629-1260 (1889) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 9.2¢ | $2.3 | — | -$2.3 | 52% 1676-1557 (3233) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 5¢ | $1.19 | — | -$1.19 | 48% 1442-1566 (3008) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 36¢ | $6.48 | — | -$6.48 | 48% 1250-1346 (2596) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 23¢ | $3.09 | — | -$3.09 | 47% 908-1031 (1939) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $2.73 | — | -$2.73 | 49% 727-769 (1496) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 49.6¢ | $22.42 | — | -$22.42 | 46% 1227-1428 (2655) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 12.4¢ | $2.82 | — | -$2.82 | 39% 807-1277 (2084) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
63%
78-45 (123)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$132.08
Value
$141.45
PnL
+$9.37
Record
48%
1139-1229 (2368)
Invested
$90
Value
—
PnL
-$90
Record
53%
304-271 (575)
Invested
$112.88
Value
$70
PnL
-$42.13
Record
52%
1296-1214 (2510)
Invested
$80.95
Value
$72
PnL
-$8.95
Record
52%
4022-3759 (7781)
Invested
$45.59
Value
$46.05
PnL
+$0.46
Record
98%
2209-44 (2253)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$53.94
Value
—
PnL
-$48.94
Record
53%
1336-1195 (2531)
Invested
$53.34
Value
$40
PnL
-$13.34
Record
51%
2068-2013 (4081)
Invested
$24.37
Value
$22.39
PnL
-$1.95
Record
67%
2180-1089 (3269)
Invested
$26.2
Value
$22.99
PnL
-$3.21
Record
54%
1521-1314 (2835)
Invested
$17.2
Value
$20
PnL
+$2.8
Record
60%
2327-1560 (3887)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$10.35
Value
$15
PnL
+$4.65
Record
74%
1022-354 (1376)
Invested
$13.84
Value
$11.37
PnL
+$2.96
Record
62%
2512-1527 (4039)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$2.9
Value
—
PnL
-$2.9
Record
33%
629-1260 (1889)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$2.3
Value
—
PnL
-$2.3
Record
52%
1676-1557 (3233)
Invested
$1.19
Value
—
PnL
-$1.19
Record
48%
1442-1566 (3008)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$6.48
Value
—
PnL
-$6.48
Record
48%
1250-1346 (2596)
Invested
$3.09
Value
—
PnL
-$3.09
Record
47%
908-1031 (1939)
Invested
$2.73
Value
—
PnL
-$2.73
Record
49%
727-769 (1496)
Invested
$22.42
Value
—
PnL
-$22.42
Record
46%
1227-1428 (2655)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$2.82
Value
—
PnL
-$2.82
Record
39%
807-1277 (2084)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $141.45
devonpoll
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $70
blue.birds
Down — $72
hoodquant
Down — $46.05
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
Down — $40