Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Back to Markets

Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET

Resolved Down. 31% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

26

Up 31%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$-2.2K

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 26 top traders (31%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,636

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Down18 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,198

Combined PnL+$236.7

Up — 31%Down — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.3K	63% 62-37 (99)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	56% 2343-1812 (4155)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	—
SO soswald1	Downavg 50¢	$450	$393.18	+$15.81	—
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 88.2¢	$128.41	$145.55	+$17.14	57% 4495-3324 (7819)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 47.9¢	$73.96	$140.88	+$66.92	48% 1106-1197 (2303)
DE devonpollARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$90	$90	+$1.15	52% 274-257 (531)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$45	$90	+$45
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$42.5	—	-$43.85
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 46.9¢	$25.46	$50	+$24.54	47% 1241-1387 (2628)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 74.3¢	$63.33	$45.99	-$17.34	51% 1663-1626 (3289)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 50¢	$43.9	$87.8	+$43.9	48% 695-751 (1446)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 24.9¢	$22.55	—	-$22.55	51% 1179-1131 (2310)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 48.1¢	$29.73	$48	+$18.27	44% 1205-1516 (2721)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Downavg 55.4¢	$32.11	$31.99	+$6.01	47% 891-1000 (1891)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 49¢	$29.34	$30	+$0.66	52% 3991-3735 (7726)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 46¢	$13.8	$30	+$16.2	49% 1222-1296 (2518)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 91.2¢	$34.06	$28.23	-$5.84	66% 2096-1059 (3155)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 89.6¢	$21.57	$24.07	+$2.5	60% 2276-1514 (3790)
38 38791873984189<$100	Downavg 49¢	$20.58	$42	+$21.42	48% 2099-2308 (4407)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 79.3¢	$56.56	$40.98	+$12.25	53% 1297-1168 (2465)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 92¢	$16.96	$17	+$0.04	39% 786-1234 (2020)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 48¢	$8.64	$18	+$9.36	46% 1190-1388 (2578)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 81.6¢	$15.39	$18.85	+$3.46	53% 1476-1292 (2768)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 72¢	$3.6	$5	+$1.4	52% 1537-1447 (2984)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 2.5¢	$4.35	—	-$4.35	48% 803-867 (1670)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 54¢	$13.5	—	-$13.5	74% 984-344 (1328)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

—

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

63%

62-37 (99)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

56%

2343-1812 (4155)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

—

Invested

$450

Value

$393.18

PnL

+$15.81

Record

—

Invested

$128.41

Value

$145.55

PnL

+$17.14

Record

57%

4495-3324 (7819)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$73.96

Value

$140.88

PnL

+$66.92

Record

48%

1106-1197 (2303)

devonpollARB<$100

Invested

$90

Value

$90

PnL

+$1.15

Record

52%

274-257 (531)

Both legs:

Down$4550¢+$45

Up$42.550¢-$43.85

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$25.46

Value

$50

PnL

+$24.54

Record

47%

1241-1387 (2628)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$63.33

Value

$45.99

PnL

-$17.34

Record

51%

1663-1626 (3289)

Invested

$43.9

Value

$87.8

PnL

+$43.9

Record

48%

695-751 (1446)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$22.55

Value

—

PnL

-$22.55

Record

51%

1179-1131 (2310)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$29.73

Value

$48

PnL

+$18.27

Record

44%

1205-1516 (2721)

rabadabadoo<$100

Invested

$32.11

Value

$31.99

PnL

+$6.01

Record

47%

891-1000 (1891)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$29.34

Value

$30

PnL

+$0.66

Record

52%

3991-3735 (7726)

Invested

$13.8

Value

$30

PnL

+$16.2

Record

49%

1222-1296 (2518)

Invested

$34.06

Value

$28.23

PnL

-$5.84

Record

66%

2096-1059 (3155)

Invested

$21.57

Value

$24.07

PnL

+$2.5

Record

60%

2276-1514 (3790)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$20.58

Value

$42

PnL

+$21.42

Record

48%

2099-2308 (4407)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$56.56

Value

$40.98

PnL

+$12.25

Record

53%

1297-1168 (2465)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$16.96

Value

$17

PnL

+$0.04

Record

39%

786-1234 (2020)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$8.64

Value

$18

PnL

+$9.36

Record

46%

1190-1388 (2578)

Invested

$15.39

Value

$18.85

PnL

+$3.46

Record

53%

1476-1292 (2768)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$3.6

Value

$5

PnL

+$1.4

Record

52%

1537-1447 (2984)

Invested

$4.35

Value

—

PnL

-$4.35

Record

48%

803-867 (1670)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$13.5

Value

—

PnL

-$13.5

Record

74%

984-344 (1328)

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 26 top traders (31%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xd4ade100...ca3e10

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794485700

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

QuantumPebble673

Up — $0

soswald1

Down — $393.18

Hcrystallash

Down — $145.55

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $140.88

devonpoll

Arbitrage — excluded

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $50

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $45.99

PBot-5

Down — $87.8

Trade on Polymarket