Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
21
Up 38%
2 arb excluded
$1.1K
$-2.2K
Smart Money Signal
8 of 21 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.3K | 63% 62-37 (99) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2343-1812 (4155) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $450 | $404.71 | -$24.29 | — |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $217.5 | — | -$217.8 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $202.35 | $404.71 | +$193.51 | |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 53.2¢ | $163.1 | $306.61 | +$143.51 | 51% 1179-1131 (2310) |
DE devonpollARB<$100 | Upavg 52.8¢ | $97.89 | $90 | -$3.7 | 52% 274-257 (531) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $45 | $90 | +$45 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.8¢ | $47.61 | — | -$48.7 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $63.51 | $64.15 | +$0.64 | 98% 2138-43 (2181) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 38.8¢ | $42.06 | — | -$42.06 | 53% 1297-1168 (2465) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 45.9¢ | $27.96 | $60.96 | +$33 | 48% 1106-1197 (2303) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 58.8¢ | $26.26 | $26.14 | -$0.12 | 47% 891-1000 (1891) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 41.1¢ | $13.98 | $34 | +$20.02 | 47% 1241-1387 (2628) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 61¢ | $13.05 | $15 | +$1.95 | 53% 1476-1292 (2768) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 89.7¢ | $37.59 | $15 | -$8.72 | 62% 2406-1470 (3876) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 88.5¢ | $12.25 | $13.07 | +$0.82 | 66% 2096-1059 (3155) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 27¢ | $7.76 | — | -$7.76 | 51% 1663-1626 (3289) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $6.97 | $15.85 | +$8.87 | 48% 2099-2308 (4407) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 21.8¢ | $7.34 | — | -$7.34 | 39% 786-1234 (2020) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $5.94 | — | -$5.94 | 47% 1384-1531 (2915) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 67.3¢ | $3.49 | $5.19 | +$1.7 | 44% 1205-1516 (2721) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $4 | $5 | +$1 | 52% 1537-1447 (2984) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $3.8 | $5 | +$1.2 | 74% 984-344 (1328) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $4.23 | $9 | +$4.77 | 49% 1222-1296 (2518) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $3.51 | — | -$3.51 | 33% 613-1228 (1841) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
63%
62-37 (99)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2343-1812 (4155)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$450
Value
$404.71
PnL
-$24.29
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$163.1
Value
$306.61
PnL
+$143.51
Record
51%
1179-1131 (2310)
Invested
$97.89
Value
$90
PnL
-$3.7
Record
52%
274-257 (531)
Both legs:
Invested
$63.51
Value
$64.15
PnL
+$0.64
Record
98%
2138-43 (2181)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$42.06
Value
—
PnL
-$42.06
Record
53%
1297-1168 (2465)
Invested
$27.96
Value
$60.96
PnL
+$33
Record
48%
1106-1197 (2303)
Invested
$26.26
Value
$26.14
PnL
-$0.12
Record
47%
891-1000 (1891)
Invested
$13.98
Value
$34
PnL
+$20.02
Record
47%
1241-1387 (2628)
Invested
$13.05
Value
$15
PnL
+$1.95
Record
53%
1476-1292 (2768)
Invested
$37.59
Value
$15
PnL
-$8.72
Record
62%
2406-1470 (3876)
Invested
$12.25
Value
$13.07
PnL
+$0.82
Record
66%
2096-1059 (3155)
Invested
$7.76
Value
—
PnL
-$7.76
Record
51%
1663-1626 (3289)
Invested
$6.97
Value
$15.85
PnL
+$8.87
Record
48%
2099-2308 (4407)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$7.34
Value
—
PnL
-$7.34
Record
39%
786-1234 (2020)
Invested
$5.94
Value
—
PnL
-$5.94
Record
47%
1384-1531 (2915)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$3.49
Value
$5.19
PnL
+$1.7
Record
44%
1205-1516 (2721)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$4
Value
$5
PnL
+$1
Record
52%
1537-1447 (2984)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$3.8
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.2
Record
74%
984-344 (1328)
ohioism<$100Invested
$4.23
Value
$9
PnL
+$4.77
Record
49%
1222-1296 (2518)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$3.51
Value
—
PnL
-$3.51
Record
33%
613-1228 (1841)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
Down — $306.61
devonpoll
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $64.15
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $60.96
rabadabadoo
Down — $26.14