Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 52% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
23
Down 52%
1 arb excluded
$1.9K
$-1.9K
Smart Money Signal
12 of 23 top traders (52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.3K | 63% 62-37 (99) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2343-1812 (4155) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $450 | $405 | -$5.35 | — |
38 38791873984189CTR | Downavg 42.7¢ | $179.49 | — | -$179.49 | 48% 2099-2308 (4407) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Upavg 94.2¢ | $98.88 | $105 | +$6.12 | 39% 786-1234 (2020) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $91.46 | $92.38 | +$0.92 | 98% 2138-43 (2181) |
DE devonpollARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $90 | $85 | -$3.2 | 52% 274-257 (531) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $45 | — | -$45 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $42.5 | $85 | +$41.8 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 67.2¢ | $77.46 | $70.88 | -$6.59 | 51% 1663-1626 (3289) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 89.7¢ | $39.59 | $44.12 | +$4.53 | 33% 613-1228 (1841) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 55.6¢ | $53.95 | — | -$52.85 | 60% 2276-1514 (3790) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 94.1¢ | $23.31 | $23.5 | +$0.19 | 66% 2096-1059 (3155) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Downavg 44.7¢ | $12.96 | — | -$12.96 | 48% 695-751 (1446) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 85.7¢ | $16.29 | $12 | +$0.75 | 62% 2406-1470 (3876) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 34.2¢ | $25.58 | — | -$25.58 | 53% 1297-1168 (2465) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 54.5¢ | $16.89 | — | -$16.89 | 46% 1190-1388 (2578) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 42¢ | $5.29 | $7.24 | +$1.95 | 44% 1205-1516 (2721) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $6.88 | $5.33 | -$1.55 | 47% 891-1000 (1891) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $4.4 | — | -$4.4 | 50% 406-401 (807) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 43.8¢ | $4.82 | — | -$4.82 | 49% 1222-1296 (2518) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 29¢ | $8.7 | — | -$8.7 | 53% 1476-1292 (2768) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 8.2¢ | $2.05 | — | -$2.05 | 52% 1537-1447 (2984) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 11¢ | $1.02 | — | -$1.02 | 47% 1384-1531 (2915) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 56.4¢ | $294.08 | — | -$294.08 | 51% 1179-1131 (2310) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
63%
62-37 (99)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2343-1812 (4155)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$450
Value
$405
PnL
-$5.35
Record
—
Invested
$179.49
Value
—
PnL
-$179.49
Record
48%
2099-2308 (4407)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$98.88
Value
$105
PnL
+$6.12
Record
39%
786-1234 (2020)
Invested
$91.46
Value
$92.38
PnL
+$0.92
Record
98%
2138-43 (2181)
Invested
$90
Value
$85
PnL
-$3.2
Record
52%
274-257 (531)
Both legs:
Invested
$77.46
Value
$70.88
PnL
-$6.59
Record
51%
1663-1626 (3289)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$39.59
Value
$44.12
PnL
+$4.53
Record
33%
613-1228 (1841)
Invested
$53.95
Value
—
PnL
-$52.85
Record
60%
2276-1514 (3790)
Invested
$23.31
Value
$23.5
PnL
+$0.19
Record
66%
2096-1059 (3155)
Invested
$12.96
Value
—
PnL
-$12.96
Record
48%
695-751 (1446)
Invested
$16.29
Value
$12
PnL
+$0.75
Record
62%
2406-1470 (3876)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$25.58
Value
—
PnL
-$25.58
Record
53%
1297-1168 (2465)
Invested
$16.89
Value
—
PnL
-$16.89
Record
46%
1190-1388 (2578)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$5.29
Value
$7.24
PnL
+$1.95
Record
44%
1205-1516 (2721)
Invested
$6.88
Value
$5.33
PnL
-$1.55
Record
47%
891-1000 (1891)
Invested
$4.4
Value
—
PnL
-$4.4
Record
50%
406-401 (807)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$4.82
Value
—
PnL
-$4.82
Record
49%
1222-1296 (2518)
Invested
$8.7
Value
—
PnL
-$8.7
Record
53%
1476-1292 (2768)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$2.05
Value
—
PnL
-$2.05
Record
52%
1537-1447 (2984)
Invested
$1.02
Value
—
PnL
-$1.02
Record
47%
1384-1531 (2915)
Invested
$294.08
Value
—
PnL
-$294.08
Record
51%
1179-1131 (2310)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
Up — $500
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
soswald1
Up — $405
38791873984189
CTRDown — $0
OhioRiskManagement
Up — $105
hoodquant
Up — $92.38
devonpoll
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $70.88
pspspsps5
Up — $44.12