Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET
Resolved Down. 32% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
25
Up 32%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
$-1.8K
Smart Money Signal
8 of 25 top traders (32%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.2K | 63% 62-37 (99) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 52.7¢ | $315.09 | $598.27 | +$283.18 | 51% 1179-1131 (2310) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2343-1812 (4155) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50.8¢ | $458.8 | $415 | +$12.35 | — |
DE devonpollARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $90 | $90 | +$2.65 | 52% 274-257 (531) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $45 | $90 | +$45 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $42.5 | — | -$42.35 | |
38 38791873984189 | Downavg 44¢ | $74.1 | $168.4 | +$94.3 | 48% 2099-2308 (4407) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $42.96 | — | -$42.96 | 48% 1106-1197 (2303) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $31.22 | $50.95 | +$25.77 | 60% 2276-1514 (3790) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $33.66 | $34 | +$0.34 | 98% 2138-43 (2181) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 87.1¢ | $89.32 | $29.61 | +$12.28 | 53% 1297-1168 (2465) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 85.4¢ | $26.44 | $30.95 | +$4.51 | 52% 1537-1447 (2984) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 46.1¢ | $24.41 | $53 | +$28.59 | 48% 695-751 (1446) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 81.1¢ | $16.71 | $19.32 | +$2.61 | 66% 2096-1059 (3155) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $11.33 | $15 | +$3.67 | 53% 1476-1292 (2768) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $12.9 | $15 | +$2.1 | 44% 1205-1516 (2721) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 44.7¢ | $12.36 | $27.67 | +$15.31 | 47% 1241-1387 (2628) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $7.52 | $5.62 | -$1.9 | 47% 891-1000 (1891) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 76.7¢ | $4.5 | $5.86 | +$1.36 | 62% 1464-882 (2346) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 80.4¢ | $4.4 | $5.47 | +$1.07 | 47% 1384-1531 (2915) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $3.48 | $4.05 | +$0.57 | 51% 1663-1626 (3289) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $1.7 | $2.3 | +$0.6 | 74% 984-344 (1328) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 10.6¢ | $4.55 | — | -$1.3 | 62% 2406-1470 (3876) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 1.3¢ | $1.95 | — | -$1.95 | 33% 613-1228 (1841) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 4.5¢ | $3.58 | — | -$3.58 | 39% 786-1234 (2020) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
63%
62-37 (99)
Invested
$315.09
Value
$598.27
PnL
+$283.18
Record
51%
1179-1131 (2310)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2343-1812 (4155)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$458.8
Value
$415
PnL
+$12.35
Record
—
Invested
$90
Value
$90
PnL
+$2.65
Record
52%
274-257 (531)
Both legs:
Invested
$74.1
Value
$168.4
PnL
+$94.3
Record
48%
2099-2308 (4407)
Invested
$42.96
Value
—
PnL
-$42.96
Record
48%
1106-1197 (2303)
Invested
$31.22
Value
$50.95
PnL
+$25.77
Record
60%
2276-1514 (3790)
Invested
$33.66
Value
$34
PnL
+$0.34
Record
98%
2138-43 (2181)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$89.32
Value
$29.61
PnL
+$12.28
Record
53%
1297-1168 (2465)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$26.44
Value
$30.95
PnL
+$4.51
Record
52%
1537-1447 (2984)
Invested
$24.41
Value
$53
PnL
+$28.59
Record
48%
695-751 (1446)
Invested
$16.71
Value
$19.32
PnL
+$2.61
Record
66%
2096-1059 (3155)
Invested
$11.33
Value
$15
PnL
+$3.67
Record
53%
1476-1292 (2768)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$12.9
Value
$15
PnL
+$2.1
Record
44%
1205-1516 (2721)
Invested
$12.36
Value
$27.67
PnL
+$15.31
Record
47%
1241-1387 (2628)
Invested
$7.52
Value
$5.62
PnL
-$1.9
Record
47%
891-1000 (1891)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$5.86
PnL
+$1.36
Record
62%
1464-882 (2346)
Invested
$4.4
Value
$5.47
PnL
+$1.07
Record
47%
1384-1531 (2915)
Invested
$3.48
Value
$4.05
PnL
+$0.57
Record
51%
1663-1626 (3289)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$1.7
Value
$2.3
PnL
+$0.6
Record
74%
984-344 (1328)
Invested
$4.55
Value
—
PnL
-$1.3
Record
62%
2406-1470 (3876)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.95
Value
—
PnL
-$1.95
Record
33%
613-1228 (1841)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$3.58
Value
—
PnL
-$3.58
Record
39%
786-1234 (2020)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $598.27
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
Down — $415
devonpoll
ARBArbitrage — excluded
38791873984189
Down — $168.4
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
Down — $50.95
hoodquant
Down — $34