Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
23
Down 59%
2 arb excluded
$3.2K
-$776.12
Smart Money Signal
14 of 23 top traders (61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.2K | 63% 62-37 (99) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 29.2¢ | $360.94 | $841.93 | +$547.22 | 51% 1179-1131 (2310) |
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2343-1812 (4155) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $487.07 | $491.99 | +$4.92 | 98% 2138-43 (2181) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $450 | — | -$379.6 | — |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 70.6¢ | $136.02 | $192.65 | +$56.63 | 48% 1106-1197 (2303) |
38 38791873984189 | Downavg 43.6¢ | $109.67 | $251.59 | +$141.92 | 48% 2099-2308 (4407) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $97.53 | $90 | -$1.4 | 52% 274-257 (531) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 41.8¢ | $83.22 | $199.1 | +$115.88 | 53% 602-537 (1139) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 67.7¢ | $149.02 | $50.56 | +$4.63 | 53% 1297-1168 (2465) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 73.6¢ | $95.11 | — | -$85.11 | 60% 2276-1514 (3790) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 84.2¢ | $25.6 | $25.17 | -$0.37 | 62% 2406-1470 (3876) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 63.9¢ | $11.8 | $18.45 | +$6.65 | 52% 1537-1447 (2984) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Upavg 63¢ | $17.29 | — | -$17.29 | 38% 430-716 (1146) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 83.2¢ | $12.7 | $15.27 | +$2.57 | 66% 2096-1059 (3155) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 94.6¢ | $14.29 | $14 | -$0.29 | 62% 1464-882 (2346) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 73¢ | $14.6 | — | -$14.6 | 46% 1190-1388 (2578) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $8.4 | — | -$8.4 | 47% 1241-1387 (2628) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 36.5¢ | $13.64 | — | -$11.37 | 47% 891-1000 (1891) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $6.64 | $4.98 | -$1.66 | 49% 1222-1296 (2518) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 71.4¢ | $36.75 | $5.62 | +$10.5 | 53% 1476-1292 (2768) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 11¢ | $1.1 | — | -$1.1 | 39% 786-1234 (2020) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Upavg 57¢ | $9.69 | — | -$9.69 | 57% 4495-3324 (7819) |
SU suntori<$100 | Downavg 21.6¢ | $9.34 | $0.01 | +$27.93 | 47% 1521-1691 (3212) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
63%
62-37 (99)
Invested
$360.94
Value
$841.93
PnL
+$547.22
Record
51%
1179-1131 (2310)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2343-1812 (4155)
Both legs:
Invested
$487.07
Value
$491.99
PnL
+$4.92
Record
98%
2138-43 (2181)
Invested
$450
Value
—
PnL
-$379.6
Record
—
Invested
$136.02
Value
$192.65
PnL
+$56.63
Record
48%
1106-1197 (2303)
Invested
$109.67
Value
$251.59
PnL
+$141.92
Record
48%
2099-2308 (4407)
Invested
$97.53
Value
$90
PnL
-$1.4
Record
52%
274-257 (531)
Invested
$83.22
Value
$199.1
PnL
+$115.88
Record
53%
602-537 (1139)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$149.02
Value
$50.56
PnL
+$4.63
Record
53%
1297-1168 (2465)
Invested
$95.11
Value
—
PnL
-$85.11
Record
60%
2276-1514 (3790)
Invested
$25.6
Value
$25.17
PnL
-$0.37
Record
62%
2406-1470 (3876)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$11.8
Value
$18.45
PnL
+$6.65
Record
52%
1537-1447 (2984)
Invested
$17.29
Value
—
PnL
-$17.29
Record
38%
430-716 (1146)
Invested
$12.7
Value
$15.27
PnL
+$2.57
Record
66%
2096-1059 (3155)
Invested
$14.29
Value
$14
PnL
-$0.29
Record
62%
1464-882 (2346)
Invested
$14.6
Value
—
PnL
-$14.6
Record
46%
1190-1388 (2578)
Invested
$8.4
Value
—
PnL
-$8.4
Record
47%
1241-1387 (2628)
Invested
$13.64
Value
—
PnL
-$11.37
Record
47%
891-1000 (1891)
ohioism<$100Invested
$6.64
Value
$4.98
PnL
-$1.66
Record
49%
1222-1296 (2518)
Invested
$36.75
Value
$5.62
PnL
+$10.5
Record
53%
1476-1292 (2768)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.1
Value
—
PnL
-$1.1
Record
39%
786-1234 (2020)
Invested
$9.69
Value
—
PnL
-$9.69
Record
57%
4495-3324 (7819)
Invested
$9.34
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$27.93
Record
47%
1521-1691 (3212)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $841.93
QuantumPebble673
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $491.99
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $192.65
38791873984189
Down — $251.59
devonpoll
Down — $90
Little-big
Down — $199.1