Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
20
Up 50%
1 arb excluded
$621.32
$-2.5K
Smart Money Signal
10 of 20 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 63% 54-32 (86) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2343-1812 (4155) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 99¢ | $195.72 | $197.7 | +$1.98 | 57% 4484-3319 (7803) |
DE devonpollARB<$100 | Upavg 50.5¢ | $92.95 | $90 | -$2.95 | 51% 262-252 (514) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.5¢ | $47.95 | — | -$47.95 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $45 | $90 | +$45 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 68.6¢ | $93.39 | $82.36 | -$11.03 | 50% 1649-1618 (3267) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 63.5¢ | $77.81 | $72.83 | -$4.98 | 47% 878-987 (1865) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 80.5¢ | $73.51 | $68.26 | -$5.25 | 53% 1455-1279 (2734) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 76.7¢ | $68.42 | $41.21 | -$8.01 | 52% 3971-3716 (7687) |
09 0x0970...e369<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $26.85 | $33.37 | +$6.52 | — |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $14.65 | $15 | +$0.35 | 51% 1519-1433 (2952) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 73.6¢ | $7.8 | $10.6 | +$2.8 | 67% 2068-1040 (3108) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Upavg 24¢ | $24 | — | -$24 | 74% 958-340 (1298) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $5.5 | $5 | -$0.5 | 53% 1280-1152 (2432) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 53.6¢ | $5.09 | — | -$5.09 | 60% 2246-1499 (3745) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $5.15 | $5 | +$1.85 | 62% 2374-1448 (3822) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 18¢ | $0.9 | — | -$0.9 | 46% 1177-1374 (2551) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.02 | — | -$1.02 | 48% 1091-1180 (2271) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 28¢ | $1.7 | — | -$1.7 | 62% 1439-874 (2313) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 32¢ | $9.34 | — | -$9.34 | 47% 1507-1682 (3189) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 24.4¢ | $3.67 | — | -$3.67 | 47% 1362-1519 (2881) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
63%
54-32 (86)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2343-1812 (4155)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$195.72
Value
$197.7
PnL
+$1.98
Record
57%
4484-3319 (7803)
Invested
$92.95
Value
$90
PnL
-$2.95
Record
51%
262-252 (514)
Both legs:
Invested
$93.39
Value
$82.36
PnL
-$11.03
Record
50%
1649-1618 (3267)
Invested
$77.81
Value
$72.83
PnL
-$4.98
Record
47%
878-987 (1865)
Invested
$73.51
Value
$68.26
PnL
-$5.25
Record
53%
1455-1279 (2734)
Invested
$68.42
Value
$41.21
PnL
-$8.01
Record
52%
3971-3716 (7687)
Invested
$26.85
Value
$33.37
PnL
+$6.52
Record
—
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$14.65
Value
$15
PnL
+$0.35
Record
51%
1519-1433 (2952)
Invested
$7.8
Value
$10.6
PnL
+$2.8
Record
67%
2068-1040 (3108)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$24
Value
—
PnL
-$24
Record
74%
958-340 (1298)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$5.5
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.5
Record
53%
1280-1152 (2432)
Invested
$5.09
Value
—
PnL
-$5.09
Record
60%
2246-1499 (3745)
Invested
$5.15
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.85
Record
62%
2374-1448 (3822)
Invested
$0.9
Value
—
PnL
-$0.9
Record
46%
1177-1374 (2551)
Invested
$1.02
Value
—
PnL
-$1.02
Record
48%
1091-1180 (2271)
Invested
$1.7
Value
—
PnL
-$1.7
Record
62%
1439-874 (2313)
Invested
$9.34
Value
—
PnL
-$9.34
Record
47%
1507-1682 (3189)
Invested
$3.67
Value
—
PnL
-$3.67
Record
47%
1362-1519 (2881)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
Hcrystallash
Down — $197.7
devonpoll
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $82.36
rabadabadoo
Down — $72.83
ply-pm2
Down — $68.26
blue.birds
Down — $41.21
0x0970...e369
Down — $33.37