Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
24
Up 54%
2 arb excluded
$699.58
$-2.6K
Smart Money Signal
13 of 24 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 64% 48-27 (75) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2341-1812 (4153) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 43¢ | $129.65 | $158.19 | +$28.54 | 52% 3955-3700 (7655) |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Upavg 82.1¢ | $272.73 | $78.38 | -$194.34 | 50% 1101-1104 (2205) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 82.1¢ | $234.63 | — | -$234.63 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.6¢ | $38.09 | $78.38 | +$40.29 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 98¢ | $109.76 | $112 | +$2.24 | 48% 1079-1166 (2245) |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 46.2¢ | $91.69 | $105.54 | +$13.84 | 53% 1437-1267 (2704) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 52.1¢ | $94.55 | — | -$85.59 | 51% 254-244 (498) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 53.4¢ | $57.66 | $64.85 | +$7.19 | 47% 868-975 (1843) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 58¢ | $72.1 | $61.15 | +$3.37 | 53% 1264-1138 (2402) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 58¢ | $35.31 | — | -$30.28 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45¢ | $27.5 | $61.15 | +$33.65 | |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 59.5¢ | $36.12 | $56.7 | +$20.58 | 51% 1494-1420 (2914) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 74.9¢ | $40.9 | — | -$40.9 | 60% 2210-1484 (3694) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Upavg 59.7¢ | $49.49 | — | -$49.49 | 57% 4476-3317 (7793) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $24.39 | $24.64 | +$0.25 | 74% 942-328 (1270) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 90.5¢ | $38.55 | — | -$38.55 | 44% 1174-1476 (2650) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $21.18 | $17 | +$4.52 | 62% 2344-1434 (3778) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 30.4¢ | $3.7 | — | -$3.7 | 39% 760-1197 (1957) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $5.14 | $7.34 | +$2.2 | 48% 1183-1263 (2446) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 21¢ | $1.32 | $6.29 | +$4.97 | 62% 1422-863 (2285) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $5.82 | $6 | +$0.18 | 47% 1342-1509 (2851) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $6 | — | -$6 | 46% 1152-1359 (2511) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 74.3¢ | $4.3 | — | -$4.3 | 67% 2047-1024 (3071) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $2.45 | — | -$2.45 | 48% 671-740 (1411) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $2.08 | — | -$2.08 | 48% 2064-2270 (4334) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $2.2 | — | -$2.2 | 53% 582-524 (1106) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
64%
48-27 (75)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2341-1812 (4153)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$129.65
Value
$158.19
PnL
+$28.54
Record
52%
3955-3700 (7655)
Invested
$272.73
Value
$78.38
PnL
-$194.34
Record
50%
1101-1104 (2205)
Both legs:
Invested
$109.76
Value
$112
PnL
+$2.24
Record
48%
1079-1166 (2245)
Invested
$91.69
Value
$105.54
PnL
+$13.84
Record
53%
1437-1267 (2704)
Invested
$94.55
Value
—
PnL
-$85.59
Record
51%
254-244 (498)
Invested
$57.66
Value
$64.85
PnL
+$7.19
Record
47%
868-975 (1843)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$72.1
Value
$61.15
PnL
+$3.37
Record
53%
1264-1138 (2402)
Both legs:
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$36.12
Value
$56.7
PnL
+$20.58
Record
51%
1494-1420 (2914)
Invested
$40.9
Value
—
PnL
-$40.9
Record
60%
2210-1484 (3694)
Invested
$49.49
Value
—
PnL
-$49.49
Record
57%
4476-3317 (7793)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$24.39
Value
$24.64
PnL
+$0.25
Record
74%
942-328 (1270)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$38.55
Value
—
PnL
-$38.55
Record
44%
1174-1476 (2650)
Invested
$21.18
Value
$17
PnL
+$4.52
Record
62%
2344-1434 (3778)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$3.7
Value
—
PnL
-$3.7
Record
39%
760-1197 (1957)
ohioism<$100Invested
$5.14
Value
$7.34
PnL
+$2.2
Record
48%
1183-1263 (2446)
Invested
$1.32
Value
$6.29
PnL
+$4.97
Record
62%
1422-863 (2285)
Invested
$5.82
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.18
Record
47%
1342-1509 (2851)
Invested
$6
Value
—
PnL
-$6
Record
46%
1152-1359 (2511)
Invested
$4.3
Value
—
PnL
-$4.3
Record
67%
2047-1024 (3071)
Invested
$2.45
Value
—
PnL
-$2.45
Record
48%
671-740 (1411)
Invested
$2.08
Value
—
PnL
-$2.08
Record
48%
2064-2270 (4334)
Invested
$2.2
Value
—
PnL
-$2.2
Record
53%
582-524 (1106)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
Down — $158.19
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $112
ply-pm2
Down — $105.54
devonpoll
CTRUp — $0
rabadabadoo
Down — $64.85
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded