Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET
Resolved Down. 42% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
19
Up 44%
$136.7
$-2.4K
Smart Money Signal
8 of 19 top traders (42%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 64% 48-27 (75) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2341-1812 (4153) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 74.1¢ | $16.85 | $22.75 | +$5.9 | 51% 1494-1420 (2914) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $15.11 | $20.71 | +$5.6 | 53% 1437-1267 (2704) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Downavg 55.3¢ | $18.79 | $34 | +$15.21 | 57% 4476-3317 (7793) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $11.28 | $20 | +$8.72 | 46% 1152-1359 (2511) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 74.4¢ | $7.75 | $10.41 | +$2.66 | 67% 2047-1024 (3071) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $6.84 | $9.12 | +$2.28 | 52% 3955-3700 (7655) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $5.28 | $6.21 | +$0.93 | 62% 1422-863 (2285) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $4.25 | $5 | +$0.75 | 47% 1342-1509 (2851) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $5.25 | $5 | +$0.65 | 62% 2344-1434 (3778) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $5.26 | $3.49 | +$3.18 | 53% 1264-1138 (2402) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $0.9 | — | -$0.9 | 33% 596-1191 (1787) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $1.31 | — | -$1.31 | 39% 760-1197 (1957) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 38% 803-1329 (2132) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $9.77 | — | -$9.77 | 47% 868-975 (1843) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $7.8 | — | -$7.8 | 50% 1101-1104 (2205) |
SU suntori<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $8.41 | $0.01 | +$8.22 | 47% 1493-1672 (3165) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
64%
48-27 (75)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2341-1812 (4153)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$16.85
Value
$22.75
PnL
+$5.9
Record
51%
1494-1420 (2914)
Invested
$15.11
Value
$20.71
PnL
+$5.6
Record
53%
1437-1267 (2704)
Invested
$18.79
Value
$34
PnL
+$15.21
Record
57%
4476-3317 (7793)
Invested
$11.28
Value
$20
PnL
+$8.72
Record
46%
1152-1359 (2511)
Invested
$7.75
Value
$10.41
PnL
+$2.66
Record
67%
2047-1024 (3071)
Invested
$6.84
Value
$9.12
PnL
+$2.28
Record
52%
3955-3700 (7655)
Invested
$5.28
Value
$6.21
PnL
+$0.93
Record
62%
1422-863 (2285)
Invested
$4.25
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.75
Record
47%
1342-1509 (2851)
Invested
$5.25
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.65
Record
62%
2344-1434 (3778)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$5.26
Value
$3.49
PnL
+$3.18
Record
53%
1264-1138 (2402)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.9
Value
—
PnL
-$0.9
Record
33%
596-1191 (1787)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.31
Value
—
PnL
-$1.31
Record
39%
760-1197 (1957)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
38%
803-1329 (2132)
Invested
$9.77
Value
—
PnL
-$9.77
Record
47%
868-975 (1843)
Invested
$7.8
Value
—
PnL
-$7.8
Record
50%
1101-1104 (2205)
Invested
$8.41
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$8.22
Record
47%
1493-1672 (3165)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
MayorMamdani
Down — $22.75
ply-pm2
Down — $20.71
Hcrystallash
Down — $34
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $20
asdaefef
Down — $10.41
blue.birds
Down — $9.12
asidjasiodja
Down — $6.21