Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 41% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
22
Up 41%
1 arb excluded
$2.2K
$-1.1K
Smart Money Signal
9 of 22 top traders (41%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | +$3.74 | 64% 48-27 (75) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $724.46 | $1.4K | +$727.02 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $724.19 | — | -$723.28 | |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2341-1812 (4153) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 45.5¢ | $197.3 | $231.79 | +$34.48 | 52% 3955-3700 (7655) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $228.46 | $230.77 | +$2.31 | 74% 942-328 (1270) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 53.1¢ | $50.62 | $95.31 | +$44.69 | 48% 1079-1166 (2245) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 49.1¢ | $53.92 | — | -$53.92 | 47% 868-975 (1843) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 34.4¢ | $71.6 | — | -$71.6 | 53% 1437-1267 (2704) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $39.2 | $40 | +$0.8 | 98% 2120-43 (2163) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 50.1¢ | $34 | $37.78 | +$5.18 | 51% 1494-1420 (2914) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $39.83 | $35.47 | -$3.66 | 67% 2047-1024 (3071) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 68.6¢ | $16.77 | $15.56 | +$4.84 | 62% 2344-1434 (3778) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 35.1¢ | $21.64 | — | -$17.08 | 48% 1183-1263 (2446) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 51.8¢ | $9.19 | $11.84 | +$2.65 | 53% 1264-1138 (2402) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $4.35 | $5 | +$0.65 | 62% 1422-863 (2285) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 20¢ | $1.24 | $4.65 | +$3.8 | 47% 1342-1509 (2851) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 15¢ | $1.5 | $10 | +$8.5 | 39% 760-1197 (1957) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $4.15 | — | -$4.15 | 50% 1101-1104 (2205) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Downavg 41¢ | $4.93 | $12.03 | +$7.1 | 37% 417-704 (1121) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $2.5 | — | -$2.5 | 57% 4476-3317 (7793) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 15¢ | $0.35 | $2.34 | +$1.99 | 33% 596-1191 (1787) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 39.5¢ | $17.39 | — | -$17.39 | 44% 1174-1476 (2650) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 42.7¢ | $25.94 | — | -$25.94 | 47% 1200-1358 (2558) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$3.74
Record
64%
48-27 (75)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2341-1812 (4153)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$197.3
Value
$231.79
PnL
+$34.48
Record
52%
3955-3700 (7655)
BoneOhioInvested
$228.46
Value
$230.77
PnL
+$2.31
Record
74%
942-328 (1270)
Invested
$50.62
Value
$95.31
PnL
+$44.69
Record
48%
1079-1166 (2245)
Invested
$53.92
Value
—
PnL
-$53.92
Record
47%
868-975 (1843)
Invested
$71.6
Value
—
PnL
-$71.6
Record
53%
1437-1267 (2704)
Invested
$39.2
Value
$40
PnL
+$0.8
Record
98%
2120-43 (2163)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$34
Value
$37.78
PnL
+$5.18
Record
51%
1494-1420 (2914)
Invested
$39.83
Value
$35.47
PnL
-$3.66
Record
67%
2047-1024 (3071)
Invested
$16.77
Value
$15.56
PnL
+$4.84
Record
62%
2344-1434 (3778)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$21.64
Value
—
PnL
-$17.08
Record
48%
1183-1263 (2446)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$9.19
Value
$11.84
PnL
+$2.65
Record
53%
1264-1138 (2402)
Invested
$4.35
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.65
Record
62%
1422-863 (2285)
Invested
$1.24
Value
$4.65
PnL
+$3.8
Record
47%
1342-1509 (2851)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$1.5
Value
$10
PnL
+$8.5
Record
39%
760-1197 (1957)
Invested
$4.15
Value
—
PnL
-$4.15
Record
50%
1101-1104 (2205)
Invested
$4.93
Value
$12.03
PnL
+$7.1
Record
37%
417-704 (1121)
Invested
$2.5
Value
—
PnL
-$2.5
Record
57%
4476-3317 (7793)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$0.35
Value
$2.34
PnL
+$1.99
Record
33%
596-1191 (1787)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$17.39
Value
—
PnL
-$17.39
Record
44%
1174-1476 (2650)
Invested
$25.94
Value
—
PnL
-$25.94
Record
47%
1200-1358 (2558)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
Down — $231.79
BoneOhio
Down — $230.77
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $95.31
rabadabadoo
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $40
MayorMamdani
Down — $37.78