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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET

Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

15

Down 60%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 15 top traders (60%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,710

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Up6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,055

Combined PnL+$9.19

Down — 60%Up — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K	64% 48-27 (75)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2341-1812 (4153)
QU QuantumPebble673	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 45.8¢	$31.33	—	-$31.33	48% 1079-1166 (2245)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 66.5¢	$26.05	$30	+$3.95	53% 1437-1267 (2704)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 81¢	$12.15	$15	+$2.85	48% 1183-1263 (2446)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Downavg 37.4¢	$16.29	—	-$16.29	47% 868-975 (1843)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 19¢	$3.54	—	-$3.54	60% 2210-1484 (3694)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 59¢	$6.35	$5.17	+$1.07	62% 2344-1434 (3778)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 74¢	$3.75	$5.07	+$1.32	67% 2047-1024 (3071)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 6.8¢	$1.36	—	-$1.36	51% 1494-1420 (2914)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Downavg 33¢	$0.83	—	-$0.83	74% 942-328 (1270)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 7.1¢	$5.81	—	-$1.26	53% 1264-1138 (2402)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 27.2¢	$8.85	—	-$8.85	52% 3955-3700 (7655)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 41¢	$6.15	—	-$6.15	47% 1200-1358 (2558)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

—

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

64%

48-27 (75)

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2341-1812 (4153)

QuantumPebble673

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$31.33

Value

—

PnL

-$31.33

Record

48%

1079-1166 (2245)

Invested

$26.05

Value

$30

PnL

+$3.95

Record

53%

1437-1267 (2704)

Invested

$12.15

Value

$15

PnL

+$2.85

Record

48%

1183-1263 (2446)

rabadabadooCTR<$100

Invested

$16.29

Value

—

PnL

-$16.29

Record

47%

868-975 (1843)

Invested

$3.54

Value

—

PnL

-$3.54

Record

60%

2210-1484 (3694)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$6.35

Value

$5.17

PnL

+$1.07

Record

62%

2344-1434 (3778)

Invested

$3.75

Value

$5.07

PnL

+$1.32

Record

67%

2047-1024 (3071)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$1.36

Value

—

PnL

-$1.36

Record

51%

1494-1420 (2914)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$0.83

Value

—

PnL

-$0.83

Record

74%

942-328 (1270)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$5.81

Value

—

PnL

-$1.26

Record

53%

1264-1138 (2402)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$8.85

Value

—

PnL

-$8.85

Record

52%

3955-3700 (7655)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$6.15

Value

—

PnL

-$6.15

Record

47%

1200-1358 (2558)

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 15 top traders (60%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x62fb060f...736836

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794477300

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Down — $0

ByteBadger92

Up — $500

QuantumPebble673

Up — $500

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $0

ply-pm2

Up — $30

ohioism

Up — $15

rabadabadoo

Down — $0

aaa221

Down — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $5.17

asdaefef

Up — $5.07

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