Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET
Resolved Down. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
17
Down 53%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
-$737.12
Smart Money Signal
9 of 17 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$2.72 | 64% 48-27 (75) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2341-1812 (4153) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 36.6¢ | $166.3 | $453.9 | +$287.6 | 50% 1101-1104 (2205) |
BL blue.birdsARB<$100 | Downavg 53.6¢ | $92.6 | $87.67 | -$4.93 | 52% 3955-3700 (7655) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.6¢ | $47 | $87.67 | +$40.67 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 34.9¢ | $45.59 | — | -$45.59 | |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 43.7¢ | $23.92 | $34.32 | +$11.86 | 47% 868-975 (1843) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 58.4¢ | $53.91 | $30 | -$6.21 | 53% 1264-1138 (2402) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $25.82 | $22.47 | -$3.35 | 62% 2344-1434 (3778) |
SU suntori<$100 | Downavg 19¢ | $3.73 | $19.63 | +$15.9 | 47% 1493-1672 (3165) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 62.2¢ | $17.43 | $17.48 | +$2.7 | 39% 760-1197 (1957) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 81¢ | $16.2 | — | -$16.2 | 47% 1200-1358 (2558) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $11.28 | $23.5 | +$12.22 | 48% 2064-2270 (4334) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $7.76 | $8 | +$0.24 | 98% 2120-43 (2163) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $3.48 | — | -$3.48 | 67% 2047-1024 (3071) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 57.3¢ | $19.02 | — | -$19.02 | 53% 1437-1267 (2704) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 18.6¢ | $14.33 | — | -$14.33 | 44% 1174-1476 (2650) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $1.05 | — | -$1.05 | 46% 1152-1359 (2511) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 2.5¢ | $1.28 | — | -$1.28 | 47% 1342-1509 (2851) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$2.72
Record
64%
48-27 (75)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2341-1812 (4153)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$166.3
Value
$453.9
PnL
+$287.6
Record
50%
1101-1104 (2205)
Invested
$92.6
Value
$87.67
PnL
-$4.93
Record
52%
3955-3700 (7655)
Both legs:
Invested
$23.92
Value
$34.32
PnL
+$11.86
Record
47%
868-975 (1843)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$53.91
Value
$30
PnL
-$6.21
Record
53%
1264-1138 (2402)
Invested
$25.82
Value
$22.47
PnL
-$3.35
Record
62%
2344-1434 (3778)
Invested
$3.73
Value
$19.63
PnL
+$15.9
Record
47%
1493-1672 (3165)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$17.43
Value
$17.48
PnL
+$2.7
Record
39%
760-1197 (1957)
Invested
$16.2
Value
—
PnL
-$16.2
Record
47%
1200-1358 (2558)
Invested
$11.28
Value
$23.5
PnL
+$12.22
Record
48%
2064-2270 (4334)
Invested
$7.76
Value
$8
PnL
+$0.24
Record
98%
2120-43 (2163)
Invested
$3.48
Value
—
PnL
-$3.48
Record
67%
2047-1024 (3071)
Invested
$19.02
Value
—
PnL
-$19.02
Record
53%
1437-1267 (2704)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$14.33
Value
—
PnL
-$14.33
Record
44%
1174-1476 (2650)
Invested
$1.05
Value
—
PnL
-$1.05
Record
46%
1152-1359 (2511)
Invested
$1.28
Value
—
PnL
-$1.28
Record
47%
1342-1509 (2851)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Down — $1.4K
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $453.9
blue.birds
ARBArbitrage — excluded
rabadabadoo
Down — $34.32
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $30
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $22.47
suntori
Down — $19.63
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $17.48