Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET
Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
23
Down 74%
1 arb excluded
$2.5K
$-1.0K
Smart Money Signal
17 of 23 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | +$10.32 | 64% 48-27 (75) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2341-1812 (4153) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 55.8¢ | $218.07 | $226.57 | +$8.5 | 51% 1641-1598 (3239) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 99¢ | $190.77 | $192.7 | +$1.93 | 57% 4476-3317 (7793) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 29.5¢ | $142.91 | — | -$142.91 | 50% 1101-1104 (2205) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 66.2¢ | $147.89 | $123.38 | -$19.67 | 52% 3955-3700 (7655) |
DE devonpollARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $90 | $90 | +$3.55 | 51% 254-244 (498) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $42.5 | — | -$41.45 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $45 | $90 | +$45 | |
FL flippingsharks | Downavg 53.4¢ | $75.27 | $141.06 | +$65.79 | 37% 417-704 (1121) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 61¢ | $53.31 | $55.11 | +$1.8 | 53% 1437-1267 (2704) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 42.9¢ | $26.37 | $42.23 | +$22.06 | 47% 868-975 (1843) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 48.5¢ | $19.4 | $40 | +$20.6 | 47% 1200-1358 (2558) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 34.7¢ | $17.1 | — | -$17.1 | 53% 1264-1138 (2402) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 82.2¢ | $18.45 | $22.44 | +$3.99 | 67% 2047-1024 (3071) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $12.25 | $25 | +$12.75 | 44% 1174-1476 (2650) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 47.2¢ | $7.68 | $16.28 | +$8.6 | 51% 1494-1420 (2914) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $12.71 | $17.9 | +$5.19 | 60% 2210-1484 (3694) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 59.3¢ | $8.9 | $15 | +$6.1 | 46% 1152-1359 (2511) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $11.96 | $10 | -$1.96 | 62% 2344-1434 (3778) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $8.6 | $10.12 | +$1.52 | 39% 760-1197 (1957) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 49.2¢ | $5.82 | — | -$5.82 | 48% 1079-1166 (2245) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $5.94 | $11 | +$5.06 | 60% 593-402 (995) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $2.8 | $5 | +$2.2 | 48% 1183-1263 (2446) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 14¢ | $1.14 | — | -$1.14 | 47% 1342-1509 (2851) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$10.32
Record
64%
48-27 (75)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2341-1812 (4153)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$218.07
Value
$226.57
PnL
+$8.5
Record
51%
1641-1598 (3239)
Invested
$190.77
Value
$192.7
PnL
+$1.93
Record
57%
4476-3317 (7793)
Invested
$142.91
Value
—
PnL
-$142.91
Record
50%
1101-1104 (2205)
Invested
$147.89
Value
$123.38
PnL
-$19.67
Record
52%
3955-3700 (7655)
Invested
$90
Value
$90
PnL
+$3.55
Record
51%
254-244 (498)
Both legs:
Invested
$75.27
Value
$141.06
PnL
+$65.79
Record
37%
417-704 (1121)
Invested
$53.31
Value
$55.11
PnL
+$1.8
Record
53%
1437-1267 (2704)
Invested
$26.37
Value
$42.23
PnL
+$22.06
Record
47%
868-975 (1843)
Invested
$19.4
Value
$40
PnL
+$20.6
Record
47%
1200-1358 (2558)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$17.1
Value
—
PnL
-$17.1
Record
53%
1264-1138 (2402)
Invested
$18.45
Value
$22.44
PnL
+$3.99
Record
67%
2047-1024 (3071)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$12.25
Value
$25
PnL
+$12.75
Record
44%
1174-1476 (2650)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$7.68
Value
$16.28
PnL
+$8.6
Record
51%
1494-1420 (2914)
Invested
$12.71
Value
$17.9
PnL
+$5.19
Record
60%
2210-1484 (3694)
Invested
$8.9
Value
$15
PnL
+$6.1
Record
46%
1152-1359 (2511)
Invested
$11.96
Value
$10
PnL
-$1.96
Record
62%
2344-1434 (3778)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$8.6
Value
$10.12
PnL
+$1.52
Record
39%
760-1197 (1957)
Invested
$5.82
Value
—
PnL
-$5.82
Record
48%
1079-1166 (2245)
Invested
$5.94
Value
$11
PnL
+$5.06
Record
60%
593-402 (995)
ohioism<$100Invested
$2.8
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.2
Record
48%
1183-1263 (2446)
Invested
$1.14
Value
—
PnL
-$1.14
Record
47%
1342-1509 (2851)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Down — $1.4K
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $226.57
Hcrystallash
Down — $192.7
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
Down — $123.38
devonpoll
ARBArbitrage — excluded
flippingsharks
Down — $141.06
ply-pm2
Down — $55.11