Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (100%). 6 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET

6 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Down (27%) · Down at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 27%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$35.2

Smart Money Entry

43¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 22 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,884

Combined PnL+$17.69

Up16 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,429

Combined PnL+$17.52

Down — 27%Up — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$2.17	63% 39-23 (62)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2312-1782 (4094)
QU QuantumPebble673	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 25.1¢	$206.22	$151.63	+$9.36	50% 1065-1079 (2144)
DE devonpollARB<$100	Upavg 50.6¢	$93.1	$93.02	-$0.08	51% 244-238 (482)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.6¢	$48.1	$56.57	+$8.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$45	$36.45	-$8.55
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 68.9¢	$79.3	$88.29	+$9	51% 1618-1570 (3188)
FL flippingsharks<$100	Upavg 54.2¢	$43.99	$40.21	-$3.78	37% 416-698 (1114)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Upavg 51.6¢	$31.56	$34.81	+$3.25	47% 859-957 (1816)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 57¢	$21.23	$28.82	+$7.58	52% 3931-3686 (7617)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 97¢	$26.51	$26.92	+$0.41	98% 2115-43 (2158)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 45.1¢	$15.8	$22.4	+$6.6	44% 1150-1460 (2610)
38 38791873984189<$100	Upavg 48¢	$19.98	$20.81	+$0.83	48% 2055-2259 (4314)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 35¢	$35.09	$20.17	+$9.98	53% 1253-1113 (2366)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 35¢	$7	$19.9	+$12.9	48% 1158-1248 (2406)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 75.4¢	$26.15	$19.22	-$6.93	66% 2010-1015 (3025)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 92¢	$13.8	$14.93	+$1.13	39% 753-1174 (1927)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 91¢	$46.38	$12.98	-$23.01	60% 2182-1462 (3644)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 61.6¢	$29.47	$12.78	+$9.82	53% 1424-1248 (2672)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 11.7¢	$2.6	$5.82	+$3.22	51% 1480-1395 (2875)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 82¢	$4.3	$4.17	-$0.13	62% 1393-857 (2250)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Upavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.5	-$0.15	57% 4464-3315 (7779)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 30¢	$1.5	$1.42	-$0.08	62% 2307-1419 (3726)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 21.7¢	$6.5	$0.18	-$2.62	47% 1320-1498 (2818)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Down

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$2.17

Record

63%

39-23 (62)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2312-1782 (4094)

QuantumPebble673

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$206.22

Value

$151.63

PnL

+$9.36

Record

50%

1065-1079 (2144)

devonpollARB<$100

Invested

$93.1

Value

$93.02

PnL

-$0.08

Record

51%

244-238 (482)

Both legs:

Up$48.150.6¢+$8.47

Down$4550¢-$8.55

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$79.3

Value

$88.29

PnL

+$9

Record

51%

1618-1570 (3188)

flippingsharks<$100

Invested

$43.99

Value

$40.21

PnL

-$3.78

Record

37%

416-698 (1114)

rabadabadoo<$100

Invested

$31.56

Value

$34.81

PnL

+$3.25

Record

47%

859-957 (1816)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$21.23

Value

$28.82

PnL

+$7.58

Record

52%

3931-3686 (7617)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$26.51

Value

$26.92

PnL

+$0.41

Record

98%

2115-43 (2158)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$15.8

Value

$22.4

PnL

+$6.6

Record

44%

1150-1460 (2610)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$19.98

Value

$20.81

PnL

+$0.83

Record

48%

2055-2259 (4314)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$35.09

Value

$20.17

PnL

+$9.98

Record

53%

1253-1113 (2366)

ohioism<$100

Invested

Value

$19.9

PnL

+$12.9

Record

48%

1158-1248 (2406)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$26.15

Value

$19.22

PnL

-$6.93

Record

66%

2010-1015 (3025)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$13.8

Value

$14.93

PnL

+$1.13

Record

39%

753-1174 (1927)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$46.38

Value

$12.98

PnL

-$23.01

Record

60%

2182-1462 (3644)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$29.47

Value

$12.78

PnL

+$9.82

Record

53%

1424-1248 (2672)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.6

Value

$5.82

PnL

+$3.22

Record

51%

1480-1395 (2875)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$4.3

Value

$4.17

PnL

-$0.13

Record

62%

1393-857 (2250)

Hcrystallash<$100

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0.15

Record

57%

4464-3315 (7779)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.42

PnL

-$0.08

Record

62%

2307-1419 (3726)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.5

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$2.62

Record

47%

1320-1498 (2818)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 22 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.