Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Up (70%) · Up at 84¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12

Up84¢Down16¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$9.17

Smart Money Entry

54.7¢ → 83.5¢

+53% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up84%

Down17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,192

Combined PnL+$8.45

Down3 traders

Total Value$101.75

Total Shares136

Combined PnL+$0.73

Up — 70%Down — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$0.69	65% 33-18 (51)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$743.5	$1.2K	+$442.57
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$749.09	$307.13	-$441.87
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	57% 2288-1755 (4043)
QU QuantumPebble673	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 78.3¢	$122.1	$130.2	+$8.1	50% 1050-1060 (2110)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$90	$85.82	+$0.02	51% 235-230 (465)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 20.7¢	$13.41	$14.31	+$0.9	53% 1239-1097 (2336)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 84¢	$12.6	$12.67	+$0.07	48% 1146-1235 (2381)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 78¢	$8.15	$8.73	+$0.58	66% 1988-1002 (2990)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 88¢	$4.6	$4.36	-$0.24	62% 1374-851 (2225)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 81¢	$4.05	$3.98	-$0.07	62% 2279-1406 (3685)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 23¢	$1.82	$1.62	-$0.2	53% 1405-1239 (2644)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$0.69

Record

65%

33-18 (51)

Both legs:

Up$743.550¢+$442.57

Down$749.0950¢-$441.87

ByteBadger92

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

2288-1755 (4043)

QuantumPebble673

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

uninformedfloww

Invested

$122.1

Value

$130.2

PnL

+$8.1

Record

50%

1050-1060 (2110)

devonpollCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$90

Value

$85.82

PnL

+$0.02

Record

51%

235-230 (465)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$13.41

Value

$14.31

PnL

+$0.9

Record

53%

1239-1097 (2336)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$12.6

Value

$12.67

PnL

+$0.07

Record

48%

1146-1235 (2381)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$8.15

Value

$8.73

PnL

+$0.58

Record

66%

1988-1002 (2990)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.36

PnL

-$0.24

Record

62%

1374-851 (2225)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$4.05

Value

$3.98

PnL

-$0.07

Record

62%

2279-1406 (3685)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.82

Value

$1.62

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

1405-1239 (2644)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 84%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.4%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.