Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET

10 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Up (48%) · Up at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 48%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$126.42

Smart Money Entry

60.7¢ → 99.5¢

+64% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 21 top traders (48%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,128

Combined PnL+$158.24

Down11 traders

Total Value$288.95

Total Shares910

Combined PnL-$31.82

Up — 48%Down — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	+$6.07	65% 33-18 (51)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$656.2	$1.0K	+$353.78
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$658.15	$309.33	-$347.71
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 72.5¢	$701.15	$827.64	+$141.24	50% 1050-1060 (2110)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	57% 2288-1755 (4043)
QU QuantumPebble673	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 44.3¢	$89.23	$123.77	+$34.55	51% 1610-1559 (3169)
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.1¢	$44.37	$77.73	+$33.36
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.3¢	$44.86	$46.04	+$1.18
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 40.3¢	$102.5	$109.84	+$7.33	52% 3913-3669 (7582)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.7¢	$44.42	$76	+$31.57
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.3¢	$58.08	$33.84	-$24.24
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 51¢	$93.45	$94.95	+$3.05	51% 235-230 (465)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 15.3¢	$57.06	$66.05	+$8.98	53% 1405-1239 (2644)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 27¢	$40.5	$56.25	+$15.75	47% 716-816 (1532)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 44.3¢	$43.38	$53.73	+$15.3	53% 1239-1097 (2336)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Downavg 29.7¢	$38.98	$49.23	+$10.24	37% 415-693 (1108)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 98¢	$45.57	$46.27	+$0.7	98% 2103-43 (2146)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 57.9¢	$53.24	$46	-$7.24	53% 568-507 (1075)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Upavg 62.3¢	$36.37	$38.96	+$2.59	47% 843-952 (1795)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 48.1¢	$62.9	$30.75	-$32.16	48% 1046-1143 (2189)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 69.6¢	$25.57	$22.95	-$2.62	60% 2157-1447 (3604)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 80¢	$13.98	$14.58	+$0.96	62% 2279-1406 (3685)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 46.6¢	$31.27	$14.36	-$16.91	51% 1455-1384 (2839)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 27¢	$9.76	$13.56	+$3.8	46% 718-833 (1551)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 43.1¢	$10.77	$9.38	-$1.4	46% 1117-1330 (2447)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 87¢	$10.42	$7.45	-$2.97	66% 1988-1002 (2990)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Downavg 24¢	$2.88	$2.94	+$0.06	74% 910-315 (1225)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 4.6¢	$3.34	$0.36	-$2.98	47% 1308-1484 (2792)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 63¢	$10.05	$0.08	-$9.97	48% 1146-1235 (2381)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$6.07

Record

65%

33-18 (51)

Both legs:

Up$656.250¢+$353.78

Down$658.1550¢-$347.71

uninformedfloww

Invested

$701.15

Value

$827.64

PnL

+$141.24

Record

50%

1050-1060 (2110)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

2288-1755 (4043)

QuantumPebble673

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$89.23

Value

$123.77

PnL

+$34.55

Record

51%

1610-1559 (3169)

Both legs:

Down$44.3731.1¢+$33.36

Up$44.8644.3¢+$1.18

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$102.5

Value

$109.84

PnL

+$7.33

Record

52%

3913-3669 (7582)

Both legs:

Up$44.4244.7¢+$31.57

Down$58.0840.3¢-$24.24

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$93.45

Value

$94.95

PnL

+$3.05

Record

51%

235-230 (465)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$57.06

Value

$66.05

PnL

+$8.98

Record

53%

1405-1239 (2644)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$40.5

Value

$56.25

PnL

+$15.75

Record

47%

716-816 (1532)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$43.38

Value

$53.73

PnL

+$15.3

Record

53%

1239-1097 (2336)

flippingsharksCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$38.98

Value

$49.23

PnL

+$10.24

Record

37%

415-693 (1108)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$45.57

Value

$46.27

PnL

+$0.7

Record

98%

2103-43 (2146)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$53.24

Value

$46

PnL

-$7.24

Record

53%

568-507 (1075)

rabadabadoo<$100

Invested

$36.37

Value

$38.96

PnL

+$2.59

Record

47%

843-952 (1795)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$62.9

Value

$30.75

PnL

-$32.16

Record

48%

1046-1143 (2189)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$25.57

Value

$22.95

PnL

-$2.62

Record

60%

2157-1447 (3604)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$13.98

Value

$14.58

PnL

+$0.96

Record

62%

2279-1406 (3685)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$31.27

Value

$14.36

PnL

-$16.91

Record

51%

1455-1384 (2839)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.76

Value

$13.56

PnL

+$3.8

Record

46%

718-833 (1551)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.77

Value

$9.38

PnL

-$1.4

Record

46%

1117-1330 (2447)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$10.42

Value

$7.45

PnL

-$2.97

Record

66%

1988-1002 (2990)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.88

Value

$2.94

PnL

+$0.06

Record

74%

910-315 (1225)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.34

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$2.98

Record

47%

1308-1484 (2792)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.05

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$9.97

Record

48%

1146-1235 (2381)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 21 top traders (48%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.