Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
22
Down 59%
1 arb excluded
$2.4K
-$510.79
Smart Money Signal
13 of 22 top traders (59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$0.21 | 65% 33-18 (51) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $502.35 | $504.35 | +$4.35 | 57% 2288-1755 (4043) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $252.35 | $504.35 | +$252 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $245.89 | — | -$247.65 | |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 99¢ | $252.11 | $254.66 | +$2.55 | 57% 4456-3312 (7768) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $24.9 | $30 | +$5.1 | 52% 3913-3669 (7582) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 66.2¢ | $23.3 | $35.19 | +$11.89 | 44% 1135-1448 (2583) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $26.5 | $50 | +$23.5 | 53% 568-507 (1075) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 41.8¢ | $41.92 | — | -$32.02 | 53% 1239-1097 (2336) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | $12.8 | $20 | +$7.2 | 48% 1146-1235 (2381) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 76.5¢ | $12.61 | $16.15 | +$3.54 | 60% 2157-1447 (3604) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 64.9¢ | $12.74 | $19.62 | +$6.88 | 53% 1405-1239 (2644) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 74.7¢ | $8.64 | $11.57 | +$2.93 | 66% 1988-1002 (2990) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 98.5¢ | $10.89 | $11.05 | +$0.16 | 47% 1308-1484 (2792) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 33.4¢ | $11.81 | — | -$11.81 | 51% 1610-1559 (3169) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $9.21 | — | -$9.21 | 48% 1046-1143 (2189) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 37.5¢ | $7.76 | — | -$7.76 | 47% 843-952 (1795) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $4.35 | $5.12 | +$0.77 | 62% 1374-851 (2225) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $5.2 | $5 | -$0.2 | 62% 2279-1406 (3685) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $4.46 | $5 | +$0.54 | 51% 1455-1384 (2839) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 32¢ | $1.86 | — | -$1.86 | 47% 1458-1629 (3087) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $1.31 | — | -$1.31 | 39% 737-1162 (1899) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 31.8¢ | $6.35 | — | -$6.35 | 47% 1159-1332 (2491) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $5.1 | — | -$5.1 | 46% 1117-1330 (2447) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$0.21
Record
65%
33-18 (51)
Invested
$502.35
Value
$504.35
PnL
+$4.35
Record
57%
2288-1755 (4043)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$252.11
Value
$254.66
PnL
+$2.55
Record
57%
4456-3312 (7768)
Invested
$24.9
Value
$30
PnL
+$5.1
Record
52%
3913-3669 (7582)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$23.3
Value
$35.19
PnL
+$11.89
Record
44%
1135-1448 (2583)
Invested
$26.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$23.5
Record
53%
568-507 (1075)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$41.92
Value
—
PnL
-$32.02
Record
53%
1239-1097 (2336)
ohioism<$100Invested
$12.8
Value
$20
PnL
+$7.2
Record
48%
1146-1235 (2381)
Invested
$12.61
Value
$16.15
PnL
+$3.54
Record
60%
2157-1447 (3604)
Invested
$12.74
Value
$19.62
PnL
+$6.88
Record
53%
1405-1239 (2644)
Invested
$8.64
Value
$11.57
PnL
+$2.93
Record
66%
1988-1002 (2990)
Invested
$10.89
Value
$11.05
PnL
+$0.16
Record
47%
1308-1484 (2792)
Invested
$11.81
Value
—
PnL
-$11.81
Record
51%
1610-1559 (3169)
Invested
$9.21
Value
—
PnL
-$9.21
Record
48%
1046-1143 (2189)
Invested
$7.76
Value
—
PnL
-$7.76
Record
47%
843-952 (1795)
Invested
$4.35
Value
$5.12
PnL
+$0.77
Record
62%
1374-851 (2225)
Invested
$5.2
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.2
Record
62%
2279-1406 (3685)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$4.46
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.54
Record
51%
1455-1384 (2839)
Invested
$1.86
Value
—
PnL
-$1.86
Record
47%
1458-1629 (3087)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.31
Value
—
PnL
-$1.31
Record
39%
737-1162 (1899)
Invested
$6.35
Value
—
PnL
-$6.35
Record
47%
1159-1332 (2491)
Invested
$5.1
Value
—
PnL
-$5.1
Record
46%
1117-1330 (2447)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Down — $1.5K
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
Hcrystallash
Down — $254.66
blue.birds
Down — $30
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $35.19
Little-big
Down — $50
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
ohioism
Down — $20
aaa221
Down — $16.15