Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
18
Down 72%
1 arb excluded
$2.4K
-$466.08
Smart Money Signal
13 of 18 top traders (72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$2.32 | 65% 33-18 (51) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $494 | -$3.48 | 57% 2288-1755 (4043) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $247 | $494 | +$246.52 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 99¢ | $167.66 | $169.35 | +$1.69 | 48% 1046-1143 (2189) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 60.2¢ | $38.83 | $37 | -$1.83 | 53% 1405-1239 (2644) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 65.4¢ | $27.45 | $35.34 | +$7.89 | 46% 1117-1330 (2447) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $19.51 | $30 | +$10.49 | 48% 1146-1235 (2381) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $35.37 | $24 | -$11.37 | 51% 1610-1559 (3169) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 56.9¢ | $12.45 | $21.88 | +$9.43 | 47% 1159-1332 (2491) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 80.6¢ | $16.92 | $20.98 | +$4.06 | 66% 1988-1002 (2990) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $13.11 | $10 | -$3.11 | 47% 843-952 (1795) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 36¢ | $10.8 | $30 | +$19.2 | 52% 3913-3669 (7582) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $6.93 | $7.07 | +$0.14 | 47% 1308-1484 (2792) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 44.7¢ | $6.9 | $15.44 | +$8.54 | 74% 910-315 (1225) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $4.4 | $5.06 | +$0.66 | 62% 1374-851 (2225) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 17¢ | $0.41 | — | -$0.41 | 38% 578-951 (1529) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 16.8¢ | $5 | — | -$5 | 51% 1455-1384 (2839) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 6¢ | $0.65 | — | -$0.65 | 33% 583-1160 (1743) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 22.3¢ | $8.12 | — | -$8.12 | 53% 1239-1097 (2336) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$2.32
Record
65%
33-18 (51)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$500
Value
$494
PnL
-$3.48
Record
57%
2288-1755 (4043)
Both legs:
Invested
$167.66
Value
$169.35
PnL
+$1.69
Record
48%
1046-1143 (2189)
Invested
$38.83
Value
$37
PnL
-$1.83
Record
53%
1405-1239 (2644)
Invested
$27.45
Value
$35.34
PnL
+$7.89
Record
46%
1117-1330 (2447)
ohioism<$100Invested
$19.51
Value
$30
PnL
+$10.49
Record
48%
1146-1235 (2381)
Invested
$35.37
Value
$24
PnL
-$11.37
Record
51%
1610-1559 (3169)
Invested
$12.45
Value
$21.88
PnL
+$9.43
Record
47%
1159-1332 (2491)
Invested
$16.92
Value
$20.98
PnL
+$4.06
Record
66%
1988-1002 (2990)
Invested
$13.11
Value
$10
PnL
-$3.11
Record
47%
843-952 (1795)
Invested
$10.8
Value
$30
PnL
+$19.2
Record
52%
3913-3669 (7582)
Invested
$6.93
Value
$7.07
PnL
+$0.14
Record
47%
1308-1484 (2792)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$6.9
Value
$15.44
PnL
+$8.54
Record
74%
910-315 (1225)
Invested
$4.4
Value
$5.06
PnL
+$0.66
Record
62%
1374-851 (2225)
Invested
$0.41
Value
—
PnL
-$0.41
Record
38%
578-951 (1529)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$5
Value
—
PnL
-$5
Record
51%
1455-1384 (2839)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.65
Value
—
PnL
-$0.65
Record
33%
583-1160 (1743)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$8.12
Value
—
PnL
-$8.12
Record
53%
1239-1097 (2336)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Down — $1.5K
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $169.35
ply-pm2
Down — $37
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $35.34
ohioism
Down — $30
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $24
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $21.88
asdaefef
Down — $20.98