Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
24
Up 67%
$756.88
$-2.1K
Smart Money Signal
16 of 24 top traders (67%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | 65% 33-18 (51) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.7¢ | $508.6 | $490 | -$1 | 57% 2288-1755 (4043) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98.6¢ | $76.04 | $77.11 | +$1.06 | 98% 2103-43 (2146) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 96.2¢ | $81.44 | $66.3 | -$14.62 | 53% 1239-1097 (2336) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $54.44 | $48.5 | -$5.94 | 52% 3913-3669 (7582) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 93.4¢ | $26.53 | $28.42 | +$1.89 | 66% 1988-1002 (2990) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 7.4¢ | $63.08 | — | -$46.06 | 53% 1405-1239 (2644) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 73.3¢ | $16.05 | $21.09 | +$5.03 | 51% 1455-1384 (2839) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 93.8¢ | $19.65 | $20.47 | +$0.82 | 62% 2279-1406 (3685) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Upavg 7.3¢ | $5.18 | — | -$5.18 | 37% 415-693 (1108) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $6.73 | — | -$6.73 | 48% 1046-1143 (2189) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 17.8¢ | $4.5 | — | -$4.5 | 47% 1159-1332 (2491) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 8.8¢ | $11.7 | — | -$11.7 | 51% 1610-1559 (3169) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 16.8¢ | $8.92 | — | -$8.92 | 47% 843-952 (1795) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 8.6¢ | $18.45 | — | -$8.95 | 46% 1117-1330 (2447) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 5.6¢ | $4.64 | — | -$4.64 | 33% 583-1160 (1743) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $4.6 | $5 | +$0.4 | 47% 771-864 (1635) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Upavg 9¢ | $1.35 | — | -$1.35 | 74% 910-315 (1225) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 13.9¢ | $4.35 | — | -$4.35 | 39% 737-1162 (1899) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 14¢ | $1.02 | — | -$1.02 | 62% 1374-851 (2225) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 11.9¢ | $2.73 | — | -$2.73 | 47% 1308-1484 (2792) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 5.7¢ | $5 | — | -$5 | 44% 1135-1448 (2583) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 8¢ | $3.2 | — | -$3.2 | 48% 1146-1235 (2381) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
65%
33-18 (51)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$508.6
Value
$490
PnL
-$1
Record
57%
2288-1755 (4043)
Invested
$76.04
Value
$77.11
PnL
+$1.06
Record
98%
2103-43 (2146)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$81.44
Value
$66.3
PnL
-$14.62
Record
53%
1239-1097 (2336)
Invested
$54.44
Value
$48.5
PnL
-$5.94
Record
52%
3913-3669 (7582)
Invested
$26.53
Value
$28.42
PnL
+$1.89
Record
66%
1988-1002 (2990)
Invested
$63.08
Value
—
PnL
-$46.06
Record
53%
1405-1239 (2644)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$16.05
Value
$21.09
PnL
+$5.03
Record
51%
1455-1384 (2839)
Invested
$19.65
Value
$20.47
PnL
+$0.82
Record
62%
2279-1406 (3685)
Invested
$5.18
Value
—
PnL
-$5.18
Record
37%
415-693 (1108)
Invested
$6.73
Value
—
PnL
-$6.73
Record
48%
1046-1143 (2189)
Invested
$4.5
Value
—
PnL
-$4.5
Record
47%
1159-1332 (2491)
Invested
$11.7
Value
—
PnL
-$11.7
Record
51%
1610-1559 (3169)
Invested
$8.92
Value
—
PnL
-$8.92
Record
47%
843-952 (1795)
Invested
$18.45
Value
—
PnL
-$8.95
Record
46%
1117-1330 (2447)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$4.64
Value
—
PnL
-$4.64
Record
33%
583-1160 (1743)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$4.6
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.4
Record
47%
771-864 (1635)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$1.35
Value
—
PnL
-$1.35
Record
74%
910-315 (1225)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$4.35
Value
—
PnL
-$4.35
Record
39%
737-1162 (1899)
Invested
$1.02
Value
—
PnL
-$1.02
Record
62%
1374-851 (2225)
Invested
$2.73
Value
—
PnL
-$2.73
Record
47%
1308-1484 (2792)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$5
Value
—
PnL
-$5
Record
44%
1135-1448 (2583)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$3.2
Value
—
PnL
-$3.2
Record
48%
1146-1235 (2381)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
Down — $490
hoodquant
Down — $77.11
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $66.3
blue.birds
Down — $48.5
asdaefef
Down — $28.42
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0
MayorMamdani
Down — $21.09
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $20.47