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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

23

Up 57%

Total Value

$368.62

Combined PnL

$-2.6K

Smart Money Signal

Up

13 of 23 top traders (57%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,027

Combined PnL$-2.6K

Down10 traders

Total Value$368.62

Total Shares369

Combined PnL+$30.28

Up — 57%Down — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.4K	65% 33-18 (51)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	—
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$501.27	—	-$493.78	57% 2288-1755 (4043)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 99¢	$197.99	$200	+$2.01	48% 1046-1143 (2189)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$90	—	-$90	51% 235-230 (465)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 84.6¢	$42.3	$50	+$7.7	47% 1159-1332 (2491)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 37.6¢	$56.35	—	-$44.05	53% 1239-1097 (2336)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Downavg 74.2¢	$22.05	$26.14	+$4.09	57% 4456-3312 (7768)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 75¢	$11.85	$15.8	+$3.95	46% 1117-1330 (2447)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 74¢	$11.55	$15.6	+$4.05	48% 1146-1235 (2381)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 12.7¢	$20.6	—	-$20.6	51% 1610-1559 (3169)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 71.2¢	$14.92	$20.94	+$6.02	50% 1050-1060 (2110)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 86.3¢	$11.1	$12.86	+$1.76	66% 1988-1002 (2990)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 98.5¢	$10.89	$11.06	+$0.17	62% 2279-1406 (3685)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 98¢	$10.84	$11.06	+$0.22	47% 1308-1484 (2792)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 94¢	$4.85	$5.16	+$0.31	62% 1374-851 (2225)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 5.5¢	$2.73	—	-$2.73	39% 737-1162 (1899)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 2.3¢	$1.82	—	-$1.82	33% 583-1160 (1743)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 4.9¢	$1.58	—	-$1.58	52% 3913-3669 (7582)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 4.6¢	$1.26	—	-$1.26	51% 1455-1384 (2839)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Upavg 9¢	$2.2	—	-$2.2	47% 843-952 (1795)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 5¢	$0.16	—	-$0.16	38% 578-951 (1529)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 17¢	$14.45	—	-$14.45	53% 1405-1239 (2644)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

—

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

65%

33-18 (51)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

—

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$501.27

Value

—

PnL

-$493.78

Record

57%

2288-1755 (4043)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$197.99

Value

$200

PnL

+$2.01

Record

48%

1046-1143 (2189)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$90

Value

—

PnL

-$90

Record

51%

235-230 (465)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$42.3

Value

$50

PnL

+$7.7

Record

47%

1159-1332 (2491)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$56.35

Value

—

PnL

-$44.05

Record

53%

1239-1097 (2336)

Hcrystallash<$100

Invested

$22.05

Value

$26.14

PnL

+$4.09

Record

57%

4456-3312 (7768)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$11.85

Value

$15.8

PnL

+$3.95

Record

46%

1117-1330 (2447)

Invested

$11.55

Value

$15.6

PnL

+$4.05

Record

48%

1146-1235 (2381)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$20.6

Value

—

PnL

-$20.6

Record

51%

1610-1559 (3169)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$14.92

Value

$20.94

PnL

+$6.02

Record

50%

1050-1060 (2110)

Invested

$11.1

Value

$12.86

PnL

+$1.76

Record

66%

1988-1002 (2990)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$10.89

Value

$11.06

PnL

+$0.17

Record

62%

2279-1406 (3685)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$10.84

Value

$11.06

PnL

+$0.22

Record

47%

1308-1484 (2792)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$4.85

Value

$5.16

PnL

+$0.31

Record

62%

1374-851 (2225)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$2.73

Value

—

PnL

-$2.73

Record

39%

737-1162 (1899)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$1.82

Value

—

PnL

-$1.82

Record

33%

583-1160 (1743)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$1.58

Value

—

PnL

-$1.58

Record

52%

3913-3669 (7582)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$1.26

Value

—

PnL

-$1.26

Record

51%

1455-1384 (2839)

rabadabadooCTR<$100

Invested

$2.2

Value

—

PnL

-$2.2

Record

47%

843-952 (1795)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$0.16

Value

—

PnL

-$0.16

Record

38%

578-951 (1529)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$14.45

Value

—

PnL

-$14.45

Record

53%

1405-1239 (2644)

Smart Money Signal

Up

13 of 23 top traders (57%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x7857945f...f36b6a

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794471000

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Up — $0

QuantumPebble673

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $200

devonpoll

Up — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $50

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $0

Hcrystallash

Down — $26.14

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $15.8

ohioism

Down — $15.6

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