Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
19
Down 63%
1 arb excluded
$2.2K
-$683.17
Smart Money Signal
12 of 19 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$1.68 | 65% 33-18 (51) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.7¢ | $513.8 | $510 | +$2.4 | 57% 2288-1755 (4043) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 51.8¢ | $102.79 | — | -$102.79 | 48% 1046-1143 (2189) |
DE devonpollARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $90 | $90 | +$2.1 | 51% 235-230 (465) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $45 | $90 | +$45 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $42.5 | — | -$42.9 | |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $43.05 | — | -$34.45 | 53% 1239-1097 (2336) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 71.9¢ | $30.06 | $34.55 | +$4.49 | 53% 1405-1239 (2644) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 57¢ | $19.85 | $30 | +$10.15 | 52% 3913-3669 (7582) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $26 | — | -$26 | 53% 568-507 (1075) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 80.2¢ | $16.05 | $20 | +$3.95 | 51% 1455-1384 (2839) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 21.8¢ | $31.43 | — | -$31.43 | 51% 1610-1559 (3169) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $7.55 | $9.93 | +$2.38 | 66% 1988-1002 (2990) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 30.3¢ | $12.46 | — | -$12.46 | 47% 843-952 (1795) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $8.28 | — | -$8.28 | 46% 1117-1330 (2447) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $4.31 | $5 | +$0.69 | 39% 737-1162 (1899) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $5.25 | $7 | +$1.75 | 50% 1050-1060 (2110) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $3.85 | $5.07 | +$1.22 | 62% 2279-1406 (3685) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $4.3 | $5 | +$0.7 | 62% 1374-851 (2225) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $2.6 | $5 | +$2.4 | 44% 1135-1448 (2583) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $1.29 | $1.72 | +$0.43 | 60% 2157-1447 (3604) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$1.68
Record
65%
33-18 (51)
Invested
$513.8
Value
$510
PnL
+$2.4
Record
57%
2288-1755 (4043)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$102.79
Value
—
PnL
-$102.79
Record
48%
1046-1143 (2189)
Invested
$90
Value
$90
PnL
+$2.1
Record
51%
235-230 (465)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$43.05
Value
—
PnL
-$34.45
Record
53%
1239-1097 (2336)
Invested
$30.06
Value
$34.55
PnL
+$4.49
Record
53%
1405-1239 (2644)
Invested
$19.85
Value
$30
PnL
+$10.15
Record
52%
3913-3669 (7582)
Invested
$26
Value
—
PnL
-$26
Record
53%
568-507 (1075)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$16.05
Value
$20
PnL
+$3.95
Record
51%
1455-1384 (2839)
Invested
$31.43
Value
—
PnL
-$31.43
Record
51%
1610-1559 (3169)
Invested
$7.55
Value
$9.93
PnL
+$2.38
Record
66%
1988-1002 (2990)
Invested
$12.46
Value
—
PnL
-$12.46
Record
47%
843-952 (1795)
Invested
$8.28
Value
—
PnL
-$8.28
Record
46%
1117-1330 (2447)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$4.31
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.69
Record
39%
737-1162 (1899)
Invested
$5.25
Value
$7
PnL
+$1.75
Record
50%
1050-1060 (2110)
Invested
$3.85
Value
$5.07
PnL
+$1.22
Record
62%
2279-1406 (3685)
Invested
$4.3
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.7
Record
62%
1374-851 (2225)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$2.6
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.4
Record
44%
1135-1448 (2583)
Invested
$1.29
Value
$1.72
PnL
+$0.43
Record
60%
2157-1447 (3604)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Down — $1.5K
ByteBadger92
Down — $510
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
devonpoll
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
Down — $34.55
blue.birds
Down — $30
Little-big
CTRUp — $0
MayorMamdani
Down — $20