Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 89% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
18
Up 89%
1 arb excluded
$2.8K
-$6.26
Smart Money Signal
16 of 18 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$2.21 | 65% 33-18 (51) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.5¢ | $502.4 | $500 | -$0.4 | 57% 2288-1755 (4043) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.5¢ | $250.53 | — | -$250.4 | |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $90 | — | -$85.8 | 51% 235-230 (465) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 67.6¢ | $38.12 | $49.98 | +$11.86 | 52% 3913-3669 (7582) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 86.5¢ | $43.25 | $50 | +$6.75 | 50% 1050-1060 (2110) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 81.9¢ | $38.04 | $45.41 | +$7.37 | 60% 2157-1447 (3604) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 44.3¢ | $27.84 | $62.84 | +$35 | 48% 1046-1143 (2189) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 66.1¢ | $24.48 | $35 | +$10.52 | 53% 1405-1239 (2644) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 65.6¢ | $19.1 | $24.41 | +$5.31 | 47% 843-952 (1795) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 91¢ | $13.65 | $15 | +$1.35 | 48% 1146-1235 (2381) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 74¢ | $9.63 | $13.02 | +$3.39 | 66% 1988-1002 (2990) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Upavg 49.3¢ | $10.85 | $22 | +$11.15 | 57% 4456-3312 (7768) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 87¢ | $10.69 | $7 | -$3.69 | 51% 1455-1384 (2839) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 76¢ | $5.45 | $5.07 | -$0.38 | 62% 2279-1406 (3685) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 83¢ | $4.45 | $5.36 | +$0.91 | 62% 1374-851 (2225) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 83¢ | $4.2 | $5.06 | +$0.86 | 47% 1308-1484 (2792) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 21¢ | $10.29 | — | -$10.29 | 53% 1239-1097 (2336) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 67¢ | $3.35 | $5 | +$1.65 | 46% 1117-1330 (2447) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$2.21
Record
65%
33-18 (51)
Invested
$502.4
Value
$500
PnL
-$0.4
Record
57%
2288-1755 (4043)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$90
Value
—
PnL
-$85.8
Record
51%
235-230 (465)
Invested
$38.12
Value
$49.98
PnL
+$11.86
Record
52%
3913-3669 (7582)
Invested
$43.25
Value
$50
PnL
+$6.75
Record
50%
1050-1060 (2110)
Invested
$38.04
Value
$45.41
PnL
+$7.37
Record
60%
2157-1447 (3604)
Invested
$27.84
Value
$62.84
PnL
+$35
Record
48%
1046-1143 (2189)
Invested
$24.48
Value
$35
PnL
+$10.52
Record
53%
1405-1239 (2644)
Invested
$19.1
Value
$24.41
PnL
+$5.31
Record
47%
843-952 (1795)
ohioism<$100Invested
$13.65
Value
$15
PnL
+$1.35
Record
48%
1146-1235 (2381)
Invested
$9.63
Value
$13.02
PnL
+$3.39
Record
66%
1988-1002 (2990)
Invested
$10.85
Value
$22
PnL
+$11.15
Record
57%
4456-3312 (7768)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$10.69
Value
$7
PnL
-$3.69
Record
51%
1455-1384 (2839)
Invested
$5.45
Value
$5.07
PnL
-$0.38
Record
62%
2279-1406 (3685)
Invested
$4.45
Value
$5.36
PnL
+$0.91
Record
62%
1374-851 (2225)
Invested
$4.2
Value
$5.06
PnL
+$0.86
Record
47%
1308-1484 (2792)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$10.29
Value
—
PnL
-$10.29
Record
53%
1239-1097 (2336)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.65
Record
46%
1117-1330 (2447)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Up — $1.5K
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
devonpoll
CTRDown — $0
blue.birds
Up — $49.98
uninformedfloww
Up — $50
aaa221
Up — $45.41
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $62.84
ply-pm2
Up — $35
rabadabadoo
Up — $24.41