Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Down 50%
2 arb excluded
$2.7K
-$605.62
Smart Money Signal
8 of 16 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$1.71 | 65% 33-18 (51) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $729.85 | — | -$740.41 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $729.68 | $1.5K | +$742.12 | |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $500.72 | $500 | +$2.28 | 57% 2288-1755 (4043) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $245.73 | — | -$247.72 | |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 99¢ | $627.19 | $631 | +$3.81 | 57% 4456-3312 (7768) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $90 | — | -$90 | 51% 235-230 (465) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $65.2 | $79.51 | +$14.31 | 50% 1050-1060 (2110) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $2.72 | — | -$2.72 | 48% 770-848 (1618) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 49.5¢ | $65.75 | — | -$31.5 | 53% 1239-1097 (2336) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 8¢ | $2.65 | — | -$2.65 | 51% 1455-1384 (2839) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $8.72 | $9.3 | +$0.58 | 52% 3913-3669 (7582) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $11.64 | $15 | +$3.36 | 53% 1405-1239 (2644) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $6.96 | $8.49 | +$1.53 | 66% 1988-1002 (2990) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $7.65 | — | -$7.65 | 48% 1999-2208 (4207) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $4.9 | $5 | +$0.1 | 62% 2279-1406 (3685) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 14.9¢ | $2.17 | — | -$2.17 | 47% 843-952 (1795) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 69.2¢ | $8.65 | $12.5 | +$3.85 | 47% 1159-1332 (2491) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 55.5¢ | $5.55 | $10 | +$4.45 | 48% 1146-1235 (2381) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $0.92 | — | -$0.92 | 48% 1046-1143 (2189) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$1.71
Record
65%
33-18 (51)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$500.72
Value
$500
PnL
+$2.28
Record
57%
2288-1755 (4043)
Both legs:
Invested
$627.19
Value
$631
PnL
+$3.81
Record
57%
4456-3312 (7768)
Invested
$90
Value
—
PnL
-$90
Record
51%
235-230 (465)
Invested
$65.2
Value
$79.51
PnL
+$14.31
Record
50%
1050-1060 (2110)
Invested
$2.72
Value
—
PnL
-$2.72
Record
48%
770-848 (1618)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$65.75
Value
—
PnL
-$31.5
Record
53%
1239-1097 (2336)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$2.65
Value
—
PnL
-$2.65
Record
51%
1455-1384 (2839)
Invested
$8.72
Value
$9.3
PnL
+$0.58
Record
52%
3913-3669 (7582)
Invested
$11.64
Value
$15
PnL
+$3.36
Record
53%
1405-1239 (2644)
Invested
$6.96
Value
$8.49
PnL
+$1.53
Record
66%
1988-1002 (2990)
Invested
$7.65
Value
—
PnL
-$7.65
Record
48%
1999-2208 (4207)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
62%
2279-1406 (3685)
Invested
$2.17
Value
—
PnL
-$2.17
Record
47%
843-952 (1795)
Invested
$8.65
Value
$12.5
PnL
+$3.85
Record
47%
1159-1332 (2491)
ohioism<$100Invested
$5.55
Value
$10
PnL
+$4.45
Record
48%
1146-1235 (2381)
Invested
$0.92
Value
—
PnL
-$0.92
Record
48%
1046-1143 (2189)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Hcrystallash
Down — $631
devonpoll
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $79.51
0x50f7
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
MayorMamdani
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
Down — $9.3