Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET
Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
19
Up 74%
1 arb excluded
$644.35
$-2.7K
Smart Money Signal
14 of 19 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 61% 23-15 (38) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50.6¢ | $539.1 | — | -$481.21 | 57% 2260-1719 (3979) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 99¢ | $458.49 | $440.81 | -$17.63 | 57% 4449-3308 (7757) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 40.5¢ | $92.42 | — | -$92.42 | 52% 3892-3651 (7543) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $90 | $90 | +$2.42 | 50% 224-222 (446) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 67.9¢ | $93.39 | $65.36 | -$13.03 | 53% 1383-1227 (2610) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 67.9¢ | $61.07 | — | -$63.75 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 27.6¢ | $18.01 | $65.36 | +$50.72 | |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 70.6¢ | $49.18 | — | -$42.38 | 60% 2128-1425 (3553) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 54.9¢ | $95.73 | — | -$30.98 | 53% 1222-1079 (2301) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 72.9¢ | $48.75 | — | -$48.75 | 50% 1033-1042 (2075) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 52.6¢ | $27.47 | — | -$27.47 | 48% 1035-1129 (2164) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 20.2¢ | $4.75 | $22.48 | +$17.73 | 51% 1437-1363 (2800) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 14.3¢ | $15.7 | — | -$15.7 | 47% 832-938 (1770) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 67¢ | $13.4 | — | -$13.4 | 44% 1127-1429 (2556) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $9.2 | $20 | +$10.8 | 46% 1103-1315 (2418) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 68.3¢ | $12.69 | — | -$12.58 | 62% 2249-1386 (3635) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 62.1¢ | $3.54 | $5.7 | +$2.16 | 39% 722-1145 (1867) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 40¢ | $5.6 | — | -$5.6 | 47% 1449-1613 (3062) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 38.7¢ | $4.82 | — | -$4.82 | 37% 763-1297 (2060) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 70.8¢ | $8.64 | — | -$8.64 | 67% 1964-988 (2952) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
61%
23-15 (38)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$539.1
Value
—
PnL
-$481.21
Record
57%
2260-1719 (3979)
Invested
$458.49
Value
$440.81
PnL
-$17.63
Record
57%
4449-3308 (7757)
Invested
$92.42
Value
—
PnL
-$92.42
Record
52%
3892-3651 (7543)
Invested
$90
Value
$90
PnL
+$2.42
Record
50%
224-222 (446)
Invested
$93.39
Value
$65.36
PnL
-$13.03
Record
53%
1383-1227 (2610)
Both legs:
Invested
$49.18
Value
—
PnL
-$42.38
Record
60%
2128-1425 (3553)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$95.73
Value
—
PnL
-$30.98
Record
53%
1222-1079 (2301)
Invested
$48.75
Value
—
PnL
-$48.75
Record
50%
1033-1042 (2075)
Invested
$27.47
Value
—
PnL
-$27.47
Record
48%
1035-1129 (2164)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$4.75
Value
$22.48
PnL
+$17.73
Record
51%
1437-1363 (2800)
Invested
$15.7
Value
—
PnL
-$15.7
Record
47%
832-938 (1770)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$13.4
Value
—
PnL
-$13.4
Record
44%
1127-1429 (2556)
Invested
$9.2
Value
$20
PnL
+$10.8
Record
46%
1103-1315 (2418)
Invested
$12.69
Value
—
PnL
-$12.58
Record
62%
2249-1386 (3635)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$3.54
Value
$5.7
PnL
+$2.16
Record
39%
722-1145 (1867)
Invested
$5.6
Value
—
PnL
-$5.6
Record
47%
1449-1613 (3062)
Invested
$4.82
Value
—
PnL
-$4.82
Record
37%
763-1297 (2060)
Invested
$8.64
Value
—
PnL
-$8.64
Record
67%
1964-988 (2952)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
Hcrystallash
Down — $440.81
blue.birds
CTRUp — $0
devonpoll
Down — $90
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0